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Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World civilizations

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Doug Weller - 11 Mar 2006 16:50 GMT
Paul Heinrich posted this on Ma'at.
Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101–104.
Drysdale, R., G. Zanchetta, J. Hellstrom, R. Maas, A. Fallick, M. Pickett,
I. Cartwright and L. Piccini, 2006
Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World
civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone
   ABSTRACT

   A severe drought in parts of low-latitude northeastern Africa and
southwestern Asia 4200 yr ago caused major disruption to ancient
civilizations. Stable isotope, trace element, and organic fluorescence
data from a calcite flowstone collected from the well-watered Alpi Apuane
karst of central-western Italy indicate that the climatic event
responsible for this drought was also recorded in mid-latitude Europe.
Although the timing of this event coincides with an episode of increased
ice-rafted debris to the subpolar North Atlantic, the regional
ocean-atmosphere response seems atypical of similar Holocene ice-rafting
events. Furthermore, comparison of the flowstone data with other regional
proxies suggests that the most extreme part of the dry spell occurred
toward the end of a longer-term climate anomaly.

Doug
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Eric Stevens - 11 Mar 2006 22:42 GMT
>Paul Heinrich posted this on Ma'at.
>Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101–104.
[quoted text clipped - 16 lines]
>proxies suggests that the most extreme part of the dry spell occurred
>toward the end of a longer-term climate anomaly.

The important question is, what caused it?

Eric Stevens
Matt Giwer - 12 Mar 2006 00:44 GMT
>>Paul Heinrich posted this on Ma'at.
>>Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101–104.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>>civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone
>>   ABSTRACT

>>   A severe drought in parts of low-latitude northeastern Africa and
>>southwestern Asia 4200 yr ago caused major disruption to ancient
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>>proxies suggests that the most extreme part of the dry spell occurred
>>toward the end of a longer-term climate anomaly.

> The important question is, what caused it?

    Global warming.

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Daryl Krupa - 13 Mar 2006 05:39 GMT
<snip>
> >Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101-104.
> >Drysdale, R., G. Zanchetta, J. Hellstrom, R. Maas, A. Fallick, M. Pickett,
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> >
> The important question is, what caused it?

 Eric:
 The short answer is: Solar Brown-Out, which might be blamed on
fluctuations in atmospheric dynamics in the Sun, and/or variations on
the rate and/or efficiency of nuclear reactions. Or maybe Stellar Acne.

 From Drysdale, et al.:
"The coincidence between a drying event at 4.1 ka in mid-latitude
Italy and North Atlantic ice rafting at 4.2 ka suggests
a direct link with North Atlantic circulation.
Bond et al. (2001) argued that this and similar Holocene events were
triggered by reductions in solar radiation, resulting in
southward migration of ice-bearing polar waters into
the stream of the North Atlantic Current, bringing
cooler conditions to northwestern Europe."

 Re: the exact nature of the 4.2 ka event, and differences between
it and other IRD (ice-rafted debris) events:
"The IRD data of Bond et al. (2001) show variable intensity for each
event,
with the 4.2 ka event being of considerably lower amplitude than its
neighbors.
If a unique ocean-atmosphere circulation response typifies each event,
this will confound attempts to find a universal explanation for
propagation of these changes through the climate system."

 Bond, et al. (2001) is this work, and they have this to say:
Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muschler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W.,

Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., and Bonani, G.
2001
Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the
Holocene
Science, 294, 2130-2136

"The regional cooling patterns of the last
three cycles instead resemble those that result
from reduced NADW (North Atlantic Deep Water)
formation, as exemplified by the distribution
of the much larger temperature decreases
accompanying the episode of reduced
NADW formation during the Younger Dryas."

"The high-pressure anomaly over Greenland
intensified, producing abnormally strong
northerly winds that spread Nordic Sea drift ice
southward into the subpolar North Atlantic ... "

"The Arctic-Nordic Seas thus may have been
a key region where solar-induced atmospheric
changes were amplified and transmitted globally
through their impact on sea ice and North
Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Reduced
northward heat transport, moreover, could have
further altered North Atlantic latitudinal temperature
and hydrologic gradients, potentially enhancing
the climate response in low-latitude climates."

"If solar forcing remains as the most likely
cause of the Holocene centennial- and millennial
time-scale variations in the North Atlantic's
drift-ice record, it adds an additional and unexplored
dimension to the problem of how solar
variability could induce a climate change. GCM
[Global Circulation Model]
modeling of the amplifying mechanisms have
focused on the atmosphere's dynamic response
to solar forcing. The models imply that at
times of reduced solar irradiance, the downward-
propagating effects triggered by changes
in stratospheric ozone lead to cooling of the high
northern latitude atmosphere, a slight southward
shift of the northern subtropical jet, and a decrease
in the Northern Hadley circulation. Those
atmospheric responses to reduced irradiance
could perhaps lead to the coincident increases in
North Atlantic drift ice, cooling of both the
ocean surface and atmosphere above Greenland,
and the reduced precipitation in low latitudes
implied by our findings."

"The last drift-ice cycle is broadly correlative
with the so-called Little Ice Age (LIA)
and Medieval Warm Period (MWP).
Although the regional extent and exact age of
those two events are still under debate, our
records support previous suggestions that
both may have been partly or entirely linked
to changes in solar irradiance."

 IOW, the sun shone less brightly, so that sea ice drifted
further south than usually in the North Atlantic, and eventually this
set up a change in the general circulation pattern of the North
Atlantic.
 Cooler sea-surface temperatures mean less evaoporation, and hence
less precipitation downwind.
 There also seems to have been a breakdown of the monsoon cycle
in the Indian Ocean.

 Is that enough, or would you like some more?

-
Daryl Krupa
Eric Stevens - 13 Mar 2006 10:01 GMT
><snip>
>> >Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101-104.
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
>fluctuations in atmospheric dynamics in the Sun, and/or variations on
>the rate and/or efficiency of nuclear reactions. Or maybe Stellar Acne.

... or again the passage of the earth through galactic dust clouds or
as is proposed by some a dust cloud in the solar system caused by the
break up of a giant comet. I'm afraid there ain't no short answer. :-)

  --- snip ----

>  Is that enough, or would you like some more?

There are lots of hypotheses. One thing is certain, this planet does
not have a uniform climate.

Eric Stevens
Matt Giwer - 12 Mar 2006 00:50 GMT
> Paul Heinrich posted this on Ma'at.
> Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101–104.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone
>     ABSTRACT

>     A severe drought in parts of low-latitude northeastern Africa and
> southwestern Asia 4200 yr ago caused major disruption to ancient
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> proxies suggests that the most extreme part of the dry spell occurred
> toward the end of a longer-term climate anomaly.

    I suppose we are supposed to know if it ever ended or if it is still in effect.
It is not as though these regions have a lot of rain today. Rather one wants to
ask how could it have been much drier?

    NE Africa leaves Egypt's water from the Nile untouched.

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Daryl Krupa - 13 Mar 2006 05:15 GMT
<snip>
> > Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World
> > civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone
> >     ABSTRACT
> >     A severe drought in parts of low-latitude northeastern Africa and
> > southwestern Asia 4200 yr ago caused major disruption to ancient
> > civilizations.
<snip>
>     I suppose we are supposed to know if it ever ended or if
> it is still in effect.

 From:
Françoise Gasse
Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial
Maximum
Quaternary Science Reviews
Volume 19, Issues 1-5 , 1 January 2000, Pages 189-211
"The changes were opposite to those of the early-mid-Holocene
transition,
the 4.5-4 ka event coinciding with the re-establishment of drier and
warmer
conditions in the West Mediterranean basin, the onset of generally
cooler
climates and increased moisture in the north-central United States,
increased wetness in Amazonia and Central Andes leading to drastic
lake-level rises of Lake Titicaca."

> It is not as though these regions have a lot of rain today.
> Rather one wants to ask how could it have been much drier?

 The hypothesis is that reduced solar irradiation results in,
among other things, a general equatorward movement of
atmospheric circulation cells.
 From:
Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muschler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W.,

Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., and Bonani, G.
2001
Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the
Holocene
Science, 294, 2130-2136.

"If solar forcing remains as the most likely cause of
the Holocene centennial- and millennial time-scale variations
in the North Atlantic's drift-ice record, it adds
an additional and unexplored dimension to the problem of
how solar variability could induce a climate change.
GCM modeling of the amplifying mechanisms have focused on
the atmosphere's dynamic response to solar forcing.
The models imply that at times of reduced solar irradiance,
the downward-propagating effects triggered by
changes in stratospheric ozone lead to
cooling of the high northern latitude atmosphere,
a slight southward shift of the northern subtropical jet, and
a decrease in the Northern Hadley circulation.
Those atmospheric responses to reduced irradiance
could perhaps lead to
the coincident increases in North Atlantic drift ice,
cooling of both the ocean surface and atmosphere above Greenland,
and the reduced precipitation in low latitudes
implied by our findings."

>     NE Africa leaves Egypt's water from the Nile untouched.

 Again from Gasse:
"In response to dry conditions in both Ethiopia and equatorial Africa,
the Main Nile flood was considerably reduced around 4.2 ka ."

-
Daryl Krupa
Matt Giwer - 13 Mar 2006 05:41 GMT
> <snip>
>
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>>    I suppose we are supposed to know if it ever ended or if
>>it is still in effect.

    I appreciate your research but I have highlighted certain words in the second one.

>   From:
> Françoise Gasse
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> increased wetness in Amazonia and Central Andes leading to drastic
> lake-level rises of Lake Titicaca."

>>It is not as though these regions have a lot of rain today.
>>Rather one wants to ask how could it have been much drier?
[quoted text clipped - 30 lines]
> and the reduced precipitation in low latitudes
> _implied_ by our findings."

    While it is interesting to speculate from models, data would be nice.

>>    NE Africa leaves Egypt's water from the Nile untouched.

>   Again from Gasse:
> "In response to dry conditions in both Ethiopia and equatorial Africa,
> the Main Nile flood was considerably reduced around 4.2 ka ."

    But has it returned to what it was prior to those times?

    Unless I miss something in the wording I don't see if the reduction back then
is still going on or if it is over.

    I am not hung up either way but I don't see how to use the information.

    Civilizations collapsed but they recovered. Is that because the weather
patterns recovered or civilizations learned how to survive in the new conditions
which still exist?

    If the former then we have an explanation that beats the hell out of Velikovsky
but as they recovered with the climate we don't have evidence. If the latter
then we can maybe find signs of the adaptation to the new conditions when the
civilizations recovered and thus we can confirm this hypothesis.

    For example if the latter then maybe a major increase in the use of irrigation
would coincide with the recovery. Perhaps a shift in staple crops can be found.

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Uwe Müller - 13 Mar 2006 08:22 GMT
> > <snip>

> snip >

> For example if the latter then maybe a major increase in the use of irrigation
> would coincide with the recovery. Perhaps a shift in staple crops can be found.

There is a text book example for this from a late Bronze Age settlement in
the Netherlands, I believe its name is Hogkarspel-Watertoren, but I will
check. A change in weather conditions (more precipitation, less evaporation)
led to irrigation canals being full of water all year long. In this
waterlogged condition they were home to a species of snails, which in turn
was host for a species of parasites that would all but kill off the
favourite animals they bred.

Instate of dying out (a response favoured by one school of thought) or
migrating to a more suitable settlement site (the other response favoured by
contemporary scholars), they changed their economy from raising cattle to
pigs. In the course of a few centuries this happened a number of times.

On other settlement sites, that have been used over a long period of time,
similar changes can be noticed. Settlement sites at the Alpine lakes for
instance (the famous Pfahlbausiedlungen) show recurring periods of use and
of abandonment, depending on the rise and fall of maximum waterlevels.

So it looks like a major change from warm/dry to cool/wet happened roughly
every 500 years, with a steep increase in extreme weather during the times
of change from one to the other.

I do not know if the weather patterns returned after a completed cycle,
settlement data for the Alps would argue for an all time high (warm/dry) in
the Neolithic and a slow deterioration (towards cool/wet) since then.

have fun

Uwe Mueller
Eric Stevens - 13 Mar 2006 10:03 GMT
>> > <snip>
>
[quoted text clipped - 26 lines]
>every 500 years, with a steep increase in extreme weather during the times
>of change from one to the other.

Various attempts at Fourier analysis of climate proxies give periods
between about 1100 years and 1500 years.

>I do not know if the weather patterns returned after a completed cycle,
>settlement data for the Alps would argue for an all time high (warm/dry) in
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
>Uwe Mueller

Eric Stevens
Steve Glines - 14 Mar 2006 00:14 GMT
>>>> <snip>
>>
[quoted text clipped - 28 lines]
> Various attempts at Fourier analysis of climate proxies give periods
> between about 1100 years and 1500 years.

Eric - I'd love to see a reference to that. The only reference I've ever
been able to find said 500, 900 and 1100 years but when I went back to
look a few years later I wasn't able to find that reference. Age and an
imperfect pushdown stack memory are responsible.

SG
Eric Stevens - 14 Mar 2006 05:25 GMT
>>>>> <snip>
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 33 lines]
>look a few years later I wasn't able to find that reference. Age and an
>imperfect pushdown stack memory are responsible.

At least one reference, the 1500 year period, was in Nature, probably
in a 2000-2002 issue for late January or February. The second was more
recent and may or may not have been published in Nature. Unfortunately
I dumped all my old issues some years ago and I can no longer lay my
hands on them. I will try to identify the earlier one, at least, from
their on-line index.

Eric Stevens
Daryl Krupa - 16 Mar 2006 02:31 GMT
<snip>
> >So it looks like a major change from warm/dry to cool/wet happened
> >roughly every 500 years, with a steep increase in extreme weather
> >during the times of change from one to the other.
>
> Various attempts at Fourier analysis of climate proxies give periods
> between about 1100 years and 1500 years.
<snip>

 Eric:
 You might be interested in this run-down of records supporting
a 1500-year periodicity:

S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery
The Physical Evidence of Earth's
Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle
Adapted from their forthcoming book,
Unstoppable Global Warming-Every 1,500 Years

PA Policy Report No. 279
September 2005
ISBN #1-56808-149-9

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st279/st279.pdf

"This paper has offered a sampling of the Earth's physical evidence
of
past climate cycles documented by researchers around the world in
recent decades, from tree rings and ice cores, from stalagmites and
dust plumes, from prehistoric villages and collapsed cultures, from
fossilized pollen and algae skeletons, from titanium profiles and
niobium ions. The evidence has come from around the world.
Evidence of a 1,500-year climate cycle is clear and convincing.
Models that posit a human impact on the climate must better take
this evidence into account before any conclusions are drawn regarding
humanity's ability to prevent future climate change."

 There is also this document, which supports an extraterrestrial
influence;
start on p. 29,
"PROBABLE CAUSES OF THE CLIMATIC-CATASTROPHE; EB IV"

http://www.bibarch.com/Documents/Doug-2.pdf

"This arid period has been dated from 2200 to 1900 B.C.E.."

-
Daryl Krupa
Eric Stevens - 16 Mar 2006 08:41 GMT
><snip>
>> >So it looks like a major change from warm/dry to cool/wet happened
[quoted text clipped - 43 lines]
>
>-

I'm feeling most frustrated. I can't find the article I remember. I'm
still looking.

Eric Stevens
Daryl Krupa - 20 Mar 2006 04:58 GMT
<snip>
> >"This arid period has been dated from 2200 to 1900 B.C.E.."

> I'm feeling most frustrated. I can't find the article I remember.
> I'm still looking.

 Eric:
 Check out this Geotimes article:

http://www.agiweb.org/geotimes/apr05/feature_NileFloods.html

"A team of scientists, led by Jean-Daniel Stanley of the Smithsonian
Institution, has now substantiated this explanation, by analyzing
sediments obtained from drilling the subsurface sediments of the Delta.
The geologists noticed a distinctly thin layer of reddish-brown silt
dating between 2250 to 2050 B.C., coincident with the time of the
collapse of the Old Kingdom. The layer indicated that the delta
floodplain dried up for a long period of time, allowing reddish-brown
iron oxides to accumulate at the surface. The scientists also detected
a significant change in the ratio of strontium isotopes, which they
interpret as evidence for a decline of rainfall in Ethiopia, the main
source of Nile floods."

 The source article:

Stanley, Jean-Daniel; Krom, Michael D; Cliff, Robert A; Woodward, Jamie
C
Short contribution; Nile flow failure at the end of the Old Kingdom,
Egypt; strontium isotopic and petrologic evidence
Geoarchaeology, vol.18, no.3, pp.395-402, Mar 2003

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/102531618/PDFSTART

Abstract
Strontium isotopic and petrologic information, obtained from sediment
cores collected in the Nile delta of Egypt, indicate that paleoclimatic
and Nile baseflow conditions changed considerably from about 4200 to
4000 cal yr B.P. in the Nile basin. Our study records a higher
proportion of White Nile sediment transported during the annual floods
at ca. 6100 cal yr B.P. than towards 4200 cal yr B.P., at which time
suspended sediment from the Blue Nile formed a significantly larger
fraction of the total load. This resulted from a decrease in vegetative
cover and an increase in erosion rate accompanying the marked decline
in rainfall. These new geoscience data indicate major changes in annual
flooding and baseflow of the river Nile, marked short-term
paleoclimatic-related events that may in part have led to the collapse
of the Old Kingdom. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

"A PALEOCLIMATIC CAUSE FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE
OLD KINGDOM
Historical records show that the Old Kingdom in Egypt continued
successfully
until 2160 B.C. (4160 cal yr B.P.; Kitchen, 1991) when it quite
suddenly
collapsed into anarchy (Bell, 1971). It has been suggested that this
was due,
in large part, to catastrophic failure of the annual Nile flood for a
period of 30
years. This was apparently followed by a second, shorter 10-year period
of
drought starting in 2020 B.C. (4020 cal yr B.P.). At this time, it was
written in
the inscription of Ankhtifi that:
All of Upper Egypt was dying of hunger, to such a degree that
everyone had come to eating his children. . . .The entire country
had become like a starved (?) grasshopper, with people going to
the north and to the south (in search of grain) . . . ( Bell, 1971, p.
9)
Bell (1971) argues that the use of the Egyptian symbol tzw, in this and
other
texts, represents an image of exposed sandbanks, which, in this
context,
suggests that failed Nile floods caused the severe famine. There is,
for
example, a minimum in the 87Sr/86Sr ratio defined at a depth of 36 m in
our
delta core S-21 record. This minimum occurs at ca. 4600 cal yr B.P. as
determined from the radiocarbon measurements of Stanley and Goodfriend
(1997). However, their calculation assumed that the carbonate age of
the
molluscs used in dating was zero initially. Core S-21 was deposited in
Lake
Manzalla very close to the sea. In an adjacent study, Schilman et al.
(2001)
have used a correction factor of 400 years for the age of planktonic
foraminifera sampled from surface waters of the Levantine basin off the
coast
of Israel. It is, therefore, reasonable to use a similar correction for
the ages of
core S-21 (i.e., 400 years) to produce the age profile given in Figure
1.
After such a correction is made, the age of the minimum in the
87Sr/86Sr
ratio defined at a depth f 36 m becomes ca. 4200 cal yr B.P.
In the prophesy of Neferty, which remembers the short and chaotic
1st Intermediate eriod, it is written that:
"The river of Egypt is empty, men cross over the water on foot"
and that "Birds no longer hatch their eggs in the swamps of the delta
. . . "
( Bell, 1971, p. 17).
At present, the flow of the White Nile is maintained by equatorial
rainfall and
is reasonably constant throughout the year, supplying most of the
baseflow
during nonflood periods (Said, 1993). The above writings imply that the

baseflow component from the White Nile was also exceptionally low
during
this drought period, indicating that this climatic anomaly affected the
entire
catchment.
Direct evidence for such low baseflow at that time is provided by two
cores
collected in the central Nile delta (cores S-86, along the Rosetta
branch,
and S-87, near the town of Tanta), which were recovered within the
freshwater region (Figure 1D).
A distinctive thin (~5 cm), reddish-brown silt layer containing
iron/manganese
hydroxide is present in each core and nowhere else within the two
mid-Holocene
core sections (Stanley et al., 1996). Sediment that has been allowed to
dry out
in air will form iron oxides that are resistant to later chemical
changes, even
once the delta system becomes flooded again. Visually, these layers
resemble
modified paleosol horizons (Figure 3) characteristic of sediment that
has dried
out and been subaerially exposed for a prolonged period. Note that the
ages of
these two horizons are 4250 cal yr B.P. in core S-86 and 4050 cal yr
B.P. in
core S-87, based on interpolated radiocarbon ages from these cores (cf.
Stanley
et al., 1996). It is also useful to recall the similar age, ca. 4200
cal yr B.P., of
the sediment section defined by the minimal isotopic ratio in Nile
delta coastal
core S-21."

Bell, B. (1971).
The Dark Ages in ancient history: The first dark age in Egypt.
American Journal of Archaeology, 75, 1-25.

Kitchen, K.A. (1991).
The chronology of ancient Egypt.
World Archaeology, 23, 201-208.

Owens, R.B., Barthelme, J.W., Renaut, R.W., & Vincens, A. (1982).
Palaeolimnology and archaeology of
Holocene deposits northeast of Lake Turkana, Kenya.
Nature, 298, 523-529.

Pachur, H.J., & Kro¨ pelin, St. (1987).
Wadi Howar: Paleoclimatic evidence from an extinct river system
in the southeastern Sahara.
Science, 237, 298-300.

Said, R. (1993).
The River Nile.
Oxford: Pergamon Press.

Schilman, B., Almogi-Lapin, A., Bar-Matthews, M., Labeyrie, L.,
Paterne, M., & Luz, B. (2001).
Long- and short-term carbon fluctuations in the Eastern Mediterranean
during the late Holocene.
Geology, 29, 1099-1102.

Stanley, D.J., & Goodfriend, G.A. (1997).
Recent subsidence of the northern Suez Canal
Nature, 388, 335-336.

Stanley, D.J., McRae, J.E., Jr., & Waldron, J.C. (1996).
Nile delta drill core and sample database for 1985-1994:
Mediterranean Basin (Mediba) Program,
Smithsonian Contribution to the Marine Sciences.
Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution.

Talbot, M.R., Williams, M.A.J., & Adamson, D.A. (2000).
Strontium isotope evidence for late Pleistocene
re-establishment of an integrated Nile drainage network.
Geology, 28, 343-346.

'Nuff Said?
Daryl Krupa
Hayabusa - 22 Mar 2006 20:54 GMT
<snip>

>'Nuff Said?
>Daryl Krupa

TX for that one, pretty exhaustive,

fkoe
Peter Alaca - 16 Mar 2006 14:24 GMT
> <snip>
>>> So it looks like a major change from warm/dry to cool/wet happened
[quoted text clipped - 33 lines]
> humanity's ability to prevent future climate change."
> [...]

Good overview.
To remarks:
- I think a 1000 yr range is a lot for a 1500 yr cycle.
- Growing grapes in roman and medieval times only
 shows that it was possible I that periods, not that it
 was impossible in the intervening thousend years.
 You also need a marked and a the organisation.
 Besides, we don't know what the Roman production was.

See also
"Study offers Preview Ice Sheet Melting, Rapid Climate Change"
http://tinyurl.com/f72bl   (Oregon State U)

Signature

p.a.

Peter Alaca - 13 Mar 2006 11:51 GMT
>>> <snip>
>> snip >
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> settlement in the Netherlands, I believe its name is
> Hogkarspel-Watertoren, but I will check.

Bakker, J.A., et al., 1977.
"Hoogkarspel watertoren: towards a Reconstruction
of Ecology an Archaeology of an Agrarian Settlement
of 1000 BC."
In: B.L. van Beek, R.W. Brandt, W. Groenman-van
Waateringe (red.), Ex Horreo, (Cingula 4), pp. 187-22,
Amsterdam

> A change in weather
> conditions (more precipitation, less evaporation) led to irrigation
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
>
> Uwe Mueller
Peter Alaca - 14 Mar 2006 11:03 GMT
>>>> <snip>
>>> snip >
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> Waateringe (red.), Ex Horreo, (Cingula 4), pp. 187-22,
> Amsterdam

And I quess there is more in Janneke Buurman's
dissertation "The eastern part of West - Friesland
in later prehistory. Agricultural and environmental
aspects." Leiden, 1996.

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p.a.

prd - 13 Mar 2006 14:35 GMT
In sci.archaeology message  news:dv36lm$imu$1@online.de by "Uwe
Müller" <uwemueller@go4more.de>  . . . :

>> > <snip>
>
[quoted text clipped - 15 lines]
> which in turn was host for a species of parasites that would all
> but kill off the favourite animals they bred.

Schistosomaisis? I thought it was a tropical disease.

 I don't know about this but I do know that female cows have a
problem when the climate goes from hot dry to suddenly cool wet.
During these conditions the favored grasses go into heat shook, the
sides of the leaves turn red, etc. Animals will tend to avoid them,
but when it suddenly rains there is a burst of growth and animals
will often eat the stressed water logged grass and the female cows
(particularly pregnant females) get a form of dropsy and die.

> Instate of dying out (a response favoured by one school of
> thought) or migrating to a more suitable settlement site (the
> other response favoured by contemporary scholars), they changed
> their economy from raising cattle to pigs. In the course of a
> few centuries this happened a number of times.

Pigs can get nutrition from a variety of sources, including tubers.

> On other settlement sites, that have been used over a long
> period of time, similar changes can be noticed. Settlement sites
> at the Alpine lakes for instance (the famous Pfahlbausiedlungen)
> show recurring periods of use and of abandonment, depending on
> the rise and fall of maximum waterlevels.

If your at the minimum water level and the water rises, it would be
sensible to move (or build up).

> So it looks like a major change from warm/dry to cool/wet
> happened roughly every 500 years, with a steep increase in
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> high (warm/dry) in the Neolithic and a slow deterioration
> (towards cool/wet) since then.
Peter Alaca - 13 Mar 2006 15:09 GMT
> "Uwe Müller"   . . . :

>>> For example if the latter then maybe a major increase in the
>>> use of irrigation would coincide with the recovery.
>>> Perhaps a shift in staple crops can be found.

>> There is a text book example for this from a late Bronze Age
>> settlement in the Netherlands, I believe its name is
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>
> Schistosomaisis? I thought it was a tropical disease.

No, more likely /distomatosis/, a parasite of cow,
sheep and goat, but today I think mainly a problem
among sheep on wet grassland, because a watersnail
(Limnea truncatula) is necessary in the life-cicle of
the parasite. http://tinyurl.com/hp725

>  [...]

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Day Brown - 14 Mar 2006 02:16 GMT
You can rustle cattle. You cant rustle a herd of pigs; they'll just run
off in all directions. So- during times of peace, without banditry,
folks want cows for the milk. But during war, set the pigs free to hunt
nuts in the woods. Most wars usta end during winter, so if you
habitually fed pigs at some place in the winter, they'll be coming by
to see if you are gonna do it again.

Sometimes, on the Steppe, Great Plains, Serengeti, etc., there's a
series of real good green years, and the herbivore populations explode.
But then, there's a drought, and during that year, the stock eats *all*
the remaining grass to the roots, and the soil begins to blow, which
changes the albido of the snow, which changes the path of cold fronts,
making more rain someplaces, some places less. Hominids aint the only
species that can cause climate change.
Hayabusa - 13 Mar 2006 23:09 GMT
>>>    NE Africa leaves Egypt's water from the Nile untouched.
>
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
>    But has it returned to what it was prior to those times?

I saw a record someplace (I wish I could recall where); the Nile flood
returned to "normal" only after two centuries.

fkoe
Matt Giwer - 15 Mar 2006 06:16 GMT
>>>>    NE Africa leaves Egypt's water from the Nile untouched.
>>>  Again from Gasse:
>>>"In response to dry conditions in both Ethiopia and equatorial Africa,
>>>the Main Nile flood was considerably reduced around 4.2 ka ."

>>    But has it returned to what it was prior to those times?

> I saw a record someplace (I wish I could recall where); the Nile flood
> returned to "normal" only after two centuries.

    A good start. Thanks.

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Hayabusa - 13 Mar 2006 00:17 GMT
>Paul Heinrich posted this on Ma'at.
>Geology: Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 101–104.
[quoted text clipped - 16 lines]
>proxies suggests that the most extreme part of the dry spell occurred
>toward the end of a longer-term climate anomaly.

This draught in the intermediate latitudes has been known for many
years. It was the time of the demise of the Old Empire in Egypt, of
the first Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia, of Harappa in the Indus
Valley, and others. The first civilization on Crete collapsed, and
generally it has been found that precipitation was reduced by 30%. In
northern Iraq a dry period began, the floods of the Nile were strongly
reduced for several centuries, there was strong quartz sand
precipitation in the Gulf of Oman, and the wind-blown salt input into
the glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro is strongly increased. In Minnesota
the dust precipitation in lakes was increased threefold. The event
lasted nearly 200 years before the conditions returned to normal
(whatever that is), and the Near East civilizations recovered.

fkoe
 
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