History Forum / General / British History / October 2006

The Independant,  not enough readers to matter.

The Scotsman,  readers all too far north to matter

The National Enquirer - read by Mrs Hines to see what her half-wit of
a husband has been up to during the preceding week - I guess she's
never disappointed

"Louise, something in me tightens when an American intellectual's eyes
shine, and they start to talk to me about the Russian people. Something in
me says, Watch it, a new version of Irish Catholicism is being offered for
your faith."

Eugene O'Neill (Jack Nicholson), _Reds_, (1981) to Louise Bryant (Diane
Keaton), recently returned from the Russian Revolution.)

The Best Film Warren Beatty has ever done.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas

Exitus Acta Probat

Can You Tell a Sunni From a Shiite?

Jeff Stein, national security editor at Congressional Quarterly
October 17, 2006  NY Times

FOR the past several months, I've been wrapping up lengthy interviews with
Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: "Do you
know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?"

A "gotcha" question? Perhaps. But if knowing your enemy is the most basic
rule of war, I don't think it's out of bounds. And as I quickly explain to
my subjects, I'm not looking for theological explanations, just the basics:
Who's on what side today, and what does each want?

After all, wouldn't British counterterrorism officials responsible for
Northern Ireland know the difference between Catholics and Protestants? In a
remotely similar but far more lethal vein, the 1,400-year Sunni-Shiite
rivalry is playing out in the streets of Baghdad, raising the specter of a
breakup of Iraq into antagonistic states, one backed by Shiite Iran and the
other by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states.

A complete collapse in Iraq could provide a haven for Al Qaeda operatives
within striking distance of Israel, even Europe. And the nature of the
threat from Iran, a potential nuclear power with protégés in the Gulf
states, northern Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, is
entirely different from that of Al Qaeda. It seems silly to have to argue
that officials responsible for counterterrorism should be able to recognize
opportunities for pitting these rivals against each other.

But so far, most American officials I've interviewed don't have a clue. That
includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but also
members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy agencies.
How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics?

My curiosity about our policymakers' grasp of Islam's two major branches was
piqued in 2005, when Jon Stewart and other TV comedians made hash out of
depositions, taken in a whistleblower case, in which top F.B.I. officials
drew blanks when asked basic questions about Islam. One of the bemused
officials was Gary Bald, then the bureau's counterterrorism chief. Such
expertise, Mr. Bald maintained, wasn't as important as being a good manager.

A few months later, I asked the F.B.I.'s spokesman, John Miller, about Mr.
Bald's comments. "A leader needs to drive the organization forward," Mr.
Miller told me. "If he is the executive in a counterterrorism operation in
the post-9/11 world, he does not need to memorize the collected statements
of Osama bin Laden, or be able to read Urdu to be effective. ... Playing
'Islamic Trivial Pursuit' was a cheap shot for the lawyers and a cheaper
shot for the journalist. It's just a gimmick."

Of course, I hadn't asked about reading Urdu or Mr. bin Laden's writings.

A few weeks ago, I took the F.B.I.'s temperature again. At the end of a long
interview, I asked Willie Hulon, chief of the bureau's new national security
branch, whether he thought that it was important for a man in his position
to know the difference between Sunnis and Shiites. "Yes, sure, it's right to
know the difference," he said. "It's important to know who your targets
are."

That was a big advance over 2005. So next I asked him if he could tell me
the difference. He was flummoxed. "The basics goes back to their beliefs and
who they were following," he said. "And the conflicts between the Sunnis and
the Shia and the difference between who they were following."

O.K., I asked, trying to help, what about today? Which one is Iran - Sunni
or Shiite? He thought for a second. "Iran and Hezbollah," I prompted. "Which
are they?"

He took a stab: "Sunni."

Wrong.

Al Qaeda? "Sunni."

Right.

AND to his credit, Mr. Hulon, a distinguished agent who is up nights
worrying about Al Qaeda while we safely sleep, did at least know that the
vicious struggle between Islam's Abel and Cain was driving Iraq into civil
war. But then we pay him to know things like that, the same as some members
of Congress.

Take Representative Terry Everett, a seven-term Alabama Republican who is
vice chairman of the House intelligence subcommittee on technical and
tactical intelligence.

"Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?" I asked him a few
weeks ago.

Mr. Everett responded with a low chuckle. He thought for a moment: "One's in
one location, another's in another location. No, to be honest with you, I
don't know. I thought it was differences in their religion, different
families or something."

To his credit, he asked me to explain the differences. I told him briefly
about the schism that developed after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, and
how Iraq and Iran are majority Shiite nations while the rest of the Muslim
world is mostly Sunni. "Now that you've explained it to me," he replied,
"what occurs to me is that it makes what we're doing over there extremely
difficult, not only in Iraq but that whole area."

Representative Jo Ann Davis, a Virginia Republican who heads a House
intelligence subcommittee charged with overseeing the C.I.A.'s performance
in recruiting Islamic spies and analyzing information, was similarly
dumbfounded when I asked her if she knew the difference between Sunnis and
Shiites.

"Do I?" she asked me. A look of concentration came over her face. "You know,
I should." She took a stab at it: "It's a difference in their fundamental
religious beliefs. The Sunni are more radical than the Shia. Or vice versa.
But I think it's the Sunnis who're more radical than the Shia."

Did she know which branch Al Qaeda's leaders follow?

"Al Qaeda is the one that's most radical, so I think they're Sunni," she
replied. "I may be wrong, but I think that's right."

Did she think that it was important, I asked, for members of Congress
charged with oversight of the intelligence agencies, to know the answer to
such questions, so they can cut through officials' puffery when they came up
to the Hill?

"Oh, I think it's very important," said Ms. Davis, "because Al Qaeda's whole
reason for being is based on their beliefs. And you've got to understand,
and to know your enemy."

It's not all so grimly humorous. Some agency officials and members of
Congress have easily handled my "gotcha" question. But as I keep asking it
around Capitol Hill and the agencies, I get more and more blank stares. Too
many officials in charge of the war on terrorism just don't care to learn
much, if anything, about the enemy we're fighting. And that's enough to keep
anybody up at night.
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