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The Surge

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a.spencer3 - 12 Dec 2007 08:47 GMT
"A surge bears all before it.
Then retreats, leaving death and chaos in its wake."

Discuss.

Surreyman
Paul J Gans - 12 Dec 2007 16:59 GMT
>"A surge bears all before it.
>Then retreats, leaving death and chaos in its wake."

>Discuss.

I can't.  I'll miss the last flight out if I take the
time to do so.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

D. Spencer Hines - 12 Dec 2007 17:04 GMT
Yep...

Gans, in concert with many Democrats, WANTS Iraq to end like Vietnam -- so
they can make political capital and blame Bush.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas

>>"A surge bears all before it.
>>Then retreats, leaving death and chaos in its wake."
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> I can't.  I'll miss the last flight out if I take the
> time to do so.
a.spencer3 - 12 Dec 2007 17:07 GMT
> Yep...
>
> Gans, in concert with many Democrats, WANTS Iraq to end like Vietnam -- so
> they can make political capital and blame Bush.

Then tell us how you think it's going to end?
(And I couldn't care a damn about Bush)

Surreyman
dapra - 12 Dec 2007 18:23 GMT
> Yep...
>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> Lux et Veritas et Libertas

Bush managed to add $3 trillions to the budget deficit, quadrupled the
price of oil, generate a trillion yearly trade deficit, devalue the
Dollar by 45% against the Euro. What a performance! The Corporate
Oligarchy and Hugo Chavez must love it!

What Gans or the Democrats want is insignificant. The Corporate
Oligarchy wants to run the gravy train for ever. $12 billions of tax
payers money for Iraq every month, that's like hog heaven for the
military and oil plutocracy. Their goal of bankrupting the US
government, turning the US into a banana Republic, is almost achieved.

Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The
collapse of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the
International Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.
Broderick Crawford ililililil - 13 Dec 2007 00:20 GMT
>> Yep...
>>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
> collapse of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the
> International Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.

Maybe if Bush took the rubber bands off his nuts this war might end.
redc1c4 - 13 Dec 2007 01:44 GMT
> >> Yep...
> >>
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
>
> Maybe if Bush took the rubber bands off his nuts this war might end.

maybe if you had a set of nuts, you wouldn't sound like a whiny pussy.

redc1c4,
dapra has the same issue. %-)
Signature

"Enlisted men are stupid, but extremely cunning and sly, and bear
considerable watching."

Army Officer's Guide

Adam Whyte-Settlar - 13 Dec 2007 02:07 GMT
> Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The collapse
> of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the International
> Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.

It's a myth that seems to be common in the neo-imperialist US - that anyone
in the UK gives the slightest toss about 'the loss of our empire'.
Ordinary Britons didn't gain much from the the empire anyway and latterly
most were actually in favour of returning home-rule to the colonies.
With regard to the disasterous Bush presidency then I don't think many
Britons would deny that - yes - it serves him right. He was warned by half
the planet but ignored all advice anyway.
Are we now supposed to feel empathy for arrogant genocidal war criminals?
deemsbill@aol.com - 13 Dec 2007 02:14 GMT
> > Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The collapse
> > of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the International
> > Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.
>
> It's a myth that seems to be common in the neo-imperialist US - that anyone
> in the UK gives the slightest toss about 'the loss of our empire'.

   It's really not that common because a good portion of the US
probably doesn't know we used to be part of the British Empire....or
that Britain ever had an empire.

> Ordinary Britons didn't gain much from the the empire anyway and latterly
> most were actually in favour of returning home-rule to the colonies.
> With regard to the disasterous Bush presidency then I don't think many
> Britons would deny that - yes - it serves him right. He was warned by half
> the planet but ignored all advice anyway.
> Are we now supposed to feel empathy for arrogant genocidal war criminals?
dapra - 13 Dec 2007 02:55 GMT
>>Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The collapse
>>of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the International
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> the planet but ignored all advice anyway.
> Are we now supposed to feel empathy for arrogant genocidal war criminals?

I was referring to Hines, not the British people.

No, the arrogant genocidal war criminals do not deserve your empathy or
sympathy, but your condemnation.

BTW The Poodle, Tony had something to do with it too. So the British
people has some blood on their hands too. Though, obviously we, the
American people have a lot more.
a.spencer3 - 13 Dec 2007 11:40 GMT
> >>Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The collapse
> >>of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the International
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> people has some blood on their hands too. Though, obviously we, the
> American people have a lot more.

Nope.
80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.

Surreyman
Jack Linthicum - 13 Dec 2007 11:43 GMT
> > >>Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The
> collapse
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
>
> Surreyman

It wasn't them that gave Bush the 16 words to use despite cautions
from his own intelligence services.

"The British Government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently
sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa ."
TMOliver - 13 Dec 2007 16:37 GMT
> Nope.
> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.

Sure must have been a quiet 80%, few of them calling or writing their MPs...
The cries of anguish were certainly muted.  After all, one failed vote of
confidence and he would have been gone.

Over here, we call it Monday-morning quarterbacking, "Post-event
self-justification".

TMO
D. Spencer Hines - 13 Dec 2007 16:51 GMT
Yep...

Or Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking for the NFL games.

These pogues were just making whining newsgroup posts and "marching" -- but
not convincing their Labour MP's to desert Tony.

Their crowings over having "predicted the disaster in Iraq" are also bull
feces.

This one's [Pogue Surreyman's] ire is simply anger at Bush and Blair, not
the terrorists, because he blames B & B for the fact he and his wife are
afraid to holiday in the Middle East or North Africa.

DSH

>> Nope.
>> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.

> Sure must have been a quiet 80%, few of them calling or writing their
> MPs...
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> TMO
a.spencer3 - 13 Dec 2007 20:18 GMT
> Yep...
>
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> the terrorists, because he blames B & B for the fact he and his wife are
> afraid to holiday in the Middle East or North Africa.

Do you fancy holidaying in the Maghreb at the moment?

And a third of Blair's party did desert him. It was the opposition that
saved him. It was that cooked-up a decision.

Check some facts before defecating.

Twit!

Surreyman
D. Spencer Hines - 14 Dec 2007 00:05 GMT
Utter Nonsense...

If all the Labour MP's had voted no confidence in Blair he would have been
History...

But 2/3's of them stuck with him -- to their credit -- and were joined by
the even more creditable Conservatives.

British Labour -- doing some Monday Morning Quarterbacking.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas
William Black - 13 Dec 2007 17:34 GMT
>> Nope.
>> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> The cries of anguish were certainly muted.  After all, one failed vote of
> confidence and he would have been gone.

Well no.

The biggest political demonstration in UK history took place.

Of course your local press didn't report it...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

John Kane - 13 Dec 2007 18:27 GMT
On Dec 13, 12:34 pm, "William Black" <william.bl...@hotmail.co.uk>
wrote:

> >> Nope.
> >> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
> Of course your local press didn't report it...
Was there not at least one ministerial resignation?

Also if I remember correctly Tony won with the support of the
opposition as he had a backbencher revolt on his hands for that vote.

John Kane, Kingston ON Canada
Josiah Jenkins - 14 Dec 2007 18:37 GMT
<snip>
>Was there not at least one ministerial resignation?

Yeah, Robin Cook. He resigned from his post as Leader of the House
of Commons and Lord President of the Council on 17 March 2003 in
protest against the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

17th March 2003 9.44 pm :
Personal Statement by Mr. Robin Cook (Livingston):

This is the first time for 20 years that I have addressed the House
from the Back Benches. I must confess that I had forgotten how much
better the view is from here. None of those 20 years were more
enjoyable or more rewarding than the past two, in which I have had the
immense privilege of serving this House as Leader of the House, which
were made all the more enjoyable, Mr. Speaker, by the opportunity of
working closely with you.

It was frequently the necessity for me as Leader of the House to talk
my way out of accusations that a statement had been preceded by a
press interview. On this occasion I can say with complete confidence
that no press interview has been given before this statement. I have
chosen to address the House first on why I cannot support a war
without international agreement or domestic support.

The present Prime Minister is the most successful leader of the Labour
party in my lifetime. I hope that he will continue to be the leader of
our party, and I hope that he will continue to be successful. I have
no sympathy with, and I will give no comfort to, those who want to use
this crisis to displace him.

I applaud the heroic efforts that the Prime Minister has made in
trying to secure a second resolution. I do not think that anybody
could have done better than the Foreign Secretary in working to get
support for a second resolution within the Security Council. But the
very intensity of those attempts underlines how important it was to
succeed. Now that those attempts have failed, we cannot pretend that
getting a second resolution was of no importance.

France has been at the receiving end of bucketloads of commentary in
recent days. It is not France alone that wants more time for
inspections. Germany wants more time for inspections; Russia wants
more time for inspections; indeed, at no time have we signed up even
the minimum necessary to carry a second resolution. We delude
ourselves if we think that the degree of international hostility is
all the result of President Chirac. The reality is that Britain is
being asked to embark on a war without agreement in any of the
international bodies of which we are a leading partner-not NATO, not
the European Union and, now, not the Security Council.

To end up in such diplomatic weakness is a serious reverse. Only a
year ago, we and the United States were part of a coalition against
terrorism that was wider and more diverse than I would ever have
imagined possible. History will be astonished at the diplomatic
miscalculations that led so quickly to the disintegration of that
powerful coalition. The US can afford to go it alone, but Britain is
not a superpower. Our interests are best protected not by unilateral
action but by multilateral agreement and a world order governed by
rules. Yet tonight the international partnerships most important to us
are weakened: the European Union is divided; the Security Council is
in stalemate. Those are heavy casualties of a war in which a shot has
yet to be fired.

I have heard some parallels between military action in these
circumstances and the military action that we took in Kosovo. There
was no doubt about the multilateral support that we had for the action
that we took in Kosovo. It was supported by NATO; it was supported by
the European Union; it was supported by every single one of the seven
neighbours in the region. France and Germany were our active allies.
It is precisely because we have none of that support in this case that
it was all the more important to get agreement in the Security Council
as the last hope of demonstrating international agreement.

The legal basis for our action in Kosovo was the need to respond to an
urgent and compelling humanitarian crisis. Our difficulty in getting
support this time is that neither the international community nor the
British public is persuaded that there is an urgent and compelling
reason for this military action in Iraq.

The threshold for war should always be high. None of us can predict
the death toll of civilians from the forthcoming bombardment of Iraq,
but the US warning of a bombing campaign that will "shock and awe"
makes it likely that casualties will be numbered at least in the
thousands. I am confident that British servicemen and women will
acquit themselves with professionalism and with courage. I hope that
they all come back. I hope that Saddam, even now, will quit Baghdad
and avert war, but it is false to argue that only those who support
war support our troops. It is entirely legitimate to support our
troops while seeking an alternative to the conflict that will put
those troops at risk.

Nor is it fair to accuse those of us who want longer for inspections
of not having an alternative strategy. For four years as Foreign
Secretary I was partly responsible for the western strategy of
containment. Over the past decade that strategy destroyed more weapons
than in the Gulf war, dismantled Iraq's nuclear weapons programme and
halted Saddam's medium and long-range missiles programmes. Iraq's
military strength is now less than half its size than at the time of
the last Gulf war.

Ironically, it is only because Iraq's military forces are so weak that
we can even contemplate its invasion. Some advocates of conflict claim
that Saddam's forces are so weak, so demoralised and so badly equipped
that the war will be over in a few days. We cannot base our military
strategy on the assumption that Saddam is weak and at the same time
justify pre-emptive action on the claim that he is a threat.

Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly
understood sense of the term-namely a credible device capable of being
delivered against a strategic city target. It probably still has
biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions, but it has had
them since the 1980s when US companies sold Saddam anthrax agents and
the then British Government approved chemical and munitions factories.
Why is it now so urgent that we should take military action to disarm
a military capacity that has been there for 20 years, and which we
helped to create? Why is it necessary to resort to war this week,
while Saddam's ambition to complete his weapons programme is blocked
by the presence of UN inspectors?

Only a couple of weeks ago, Hans Blix told the Security Council that
the key remaining disarmament tasks could be completed within months.
I have heard it said that Iraq has had not months but 12 years in
which to complete disarmament, and that our patience is exhausted. Yet
it is more than 30 years since resolution 242 called on Israel to
withdraw from the occupied territories. We do not express the same
impatience with the persistent refusal of Israel to comply. I welcome
the strong personal commitment that the Prime Minister has given to
middle east peace, but Britain's positive role in the middle east does
not redress the strong sense of injustice throughout the Muslim world
at what it sees as one rule for the allies of the US and another rule
for the rest.

Nor is our credibility helped by the appearance that our partners in
Washington are less interested in disarmament than they are in regime
change in Iraq. That explains why any evidence that inspections may be
showing progress is greeted in Washington not with satisfaction but
with consternation: it reduces the case for war.

What has come to trouble me most over past weeks is the suspicion that
if the hanging chads in Florida had gone the other way and Al Gore had
been elected, we would not now be about to commit British troops.

The longer that I have served in this place, the greater the respect I
have for the good sense and collective wisdom of the British people.
On Iraq, I believe that the prevailing mood of the British people is
sound. They do not doubt that Saddam is a brutal dictator, but they
are not persuaded that he is a clear and present danger to Britain.
They want inspections to be given a chance, and they suspect that they
are being pushed too quickly into conflict by a US Administration with
an agenda of its own. Above all, they are uneasy at Britain going out
on a limb on a military adventure without a broader international
coalition and against the hostility of many of our traditional allies.

From the start of the present crisis, I have insisted, as Leader of
the House, on the right of this place to vote on whether Britain
should go to war. It has been a favourite theme of commentators that
this House no longer occupies a central role in British politics.
Nothing could better demonstrate that they are wrong than for this
House to stop the commitment of troops in a war that has neither
international agreement nor domestic support. I intend to join those
tomorrow night who will vote against military action now. It is for
that reason, and for that reason alone, and with a heavy heart, that I
resign from the Government.
John Kane - 15 Dec 2007 18:29 GMT
On Dec 14, 1:37 pm, Josiah Jenkins <josiah-jenk...@dsl.pipex.com>
wrote:

> <snip>
>
[quoted text clipped - 160 lines]
> that reason, and for that reason alone, and with a heavy heart, that I
> resign from the Government.

Thank you.  A very impressive speech.    I should have rememberd it
was Robin Cook. For some reason I was thinking that it might have been
Clare Short.

I was very sad to hear of his death.
John Kane, Kingston ON Canada
John Dallman - 15 Dec 2007 19:14 GMT
In article
<3ac511e0-2abb-417f-a608-024c2df96006@j20g2000hsi.googlegroups.com>,

> Thank you.  A very impressive speech.    I should have rememberd it
> was Robin Cook. For some reason I was thinking that it might have been
> Clare Short.

Not so. She did not resign until rather later. She was verging on it, at
around the same time as Cook went, but then Tony Blair persuaded her
that she could take charge of the rebuilding of Iraq, and she stayed. It
was fairly clear at the time that she'd blown her credibility but it
took her some years to realise that. There was never any way that a
junior UK minister was going to be in charge of rebuilding Iraq, was
there?

Signature

John Dallman, jgd@cix.co.uk, HTML mail is treated as probable spam.

William Black - 16 Dec 2007 07:42 GMT
> In article
> <3ac511e0-2abb-417f-a608-024c2df96006@j20g2000hsi.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> junior UK minister was going to be in charge of rebuilding Iraq, was
> there?

She blew her credibility with her own constituency within the Labour party
by saying something along the lines of 'There are some good dictatorships'
about Pakistan some time previously when the US was busy rehabilitating
Musharaf.

So the reality is that she had nowhere to go and saw Cook's performance and
thought she could stage a come-back using him as a springboard.

Of course Cook refused to start an anti-war faction within the parliamentary
party and so she was 'dead in the water'.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

D. Spencer Hines - 16 Dec 2007 07:54 GMT
In that one sense Robin Cook was a far wiser statesman and person than
Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.

Thank God we don't have a Parliamentary System.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas

> Of course Cook refused to start an anti-war faction within the
> parliamentary party and so she was 'dead in the water'.
Josiah Jenkins - 15 Dec 2007 21:24 GMT
>On Dec 14, 1:37 pm, Josiah Jenkins <josiah-jenk...@dsl.pipex.com>
>wrote:
>>
>> 17th March 2003 9.44 pm :
>> Personal Statement by Mr. Robin Cook (Livingston):

<snipped>

>Thank you.  A very impressive speech.

That's why I saved it to my hard drive.

> I should have remembered it was Robin Cook.

>For some reason I was thinking that it might have been
>Clare Short.

She was conned into staying on in Cabinet by TB Liar.
She subsequently did resign on 12th May 2003.

>I was very sad to hear of his death.

Yeah, he was one of the 'good guys'.

-- jjj
redc1c4 - 14 Dec 2007 02:06 GMT
> >> Nope.
> >> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
> Of course your local press didn't report it...

they only cover major news stories.....

redc1c4,
preferably from somewhere comfortable with good food. %-)
Signature

"Enlisted men are stupid, but extremely cunning and sly, and bear
considerable watching."

Army Officer's Guide

William Black - 14 Dec 2007 08:04 GMT
>> >> Nope.
>> >> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
> they only cover major news stories.....

We noticed.

The recent incursion into Indian territory by China didn't make the news
there,  but strange accusations about the religion of a politician were on
the front page for a couple of days.

Your country has a very odd idea of what constitutes a major news story...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

Paul J Gans - 14 Dec 2007 04:29 GMT
In soc.history.medieval William Black <william.black@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:

>>> Nope.
>>> 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>> The cries of anguish were certainly muted.  After all, one failed vote of
>> confidence and he would have been gone.

>Well no.

>The biggest political demonstration in UK history took place.

>Of course your local press didn't report it...

Actually it was reported in some depth here in the US.
And it was talked about all over the internet.  Folks
have short memories.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

William Black - 14 Dec 2007 08:05 GMT
> In soc.history.medieval William Black <william.black@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 16 lines]
> And it was talked about all over the internet.  Folks
> have short memories.

Not short.

Selective...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

dapra - 14 Dec 2007 18:18 GMT
>> In soc.history.medieval William Black <william.black@hotmail.co.uk>
>> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
>
> Selective...

Well, the corporate media is always selective to conform to the
Corporate Oligarchy's angle.

The real news, most of the time, is what they leave out not what they
report on. A typical example is Iraq's oil law. Our politicians keep
complaining that the Iraqi government can't agree on how to share the
oil revenue. They never report on the exploitative contracts, part of
the oil law, Bush, Cheney and their oil cronies want to force on the
Iraqi people.

But, the peace demonstrations all around the world, before the war, were
reported. Even the polls were reported that a large majority in Europe
were against it.

Italians, Spaniards were against the war 70-90%. Berlusconi, Aznar
probably wanted to rub it in to their people, 'we don't give a sh*t,
what you poor suckers think. Get used to Bush style democracy'.

OTOH I never saw a poll that 80% of Brits were against the war at the
time. It was more like in the 50's maybe 60.
D. Spencer Hines - 14 Dec 2007 18:22 GMT
We aren't ruled by POLLS in Representative Democracies.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas
dapra - 14 Dec 2007 19:34 GMT
> We aren't ruled by POLLS in Representative Democracies.
>
> DSH
>
> Lux et Veritas et Libertas

I'm not familiar with the British system, but in the US, our Congress is
the wholly owed subsidiary of the Corporate Oligarchy. The so called
Representative Democracy is a joke.

Most of the seats in the Congress are auctioned out to the highest
bidder. First, anyone doesn't meet the initial bid, automatically
disqualified by the corporate media. Then, the competing oligarchs bid
against each other. In some cases the highest bidder may not get the
seat, but the initial process already got rid of the 'unwanted' candidates.
D. Spencer Hines - 14 Dec 2007 08:47 GMT
Yes...

Gans is correct here.

DSH

> In soc.history.medieval William Black <william.black@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>>> Sure must have been a quiet 80%, few of them calling or writing their
>>> MPs...

>>> The cries of anguish were certainly muted.  After all, one failed vote
>>> of
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> And it was talked about all over the internet.  Folks
> have short memories.
a.spencer3 - 13 Dec 2007 20:18 GMT
> > Nope.
> > 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> Over here, we call it Monday-morning quarterbacking, "Post-event
> self-justification".

Re-read the UK newspapers of the day!
Millions marched.
"80%" came from surveys of the day.
Blair only rammed it through Parliament with the help of the opposition and
against a third of his own party. And that was through lies.
I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.
In the UK the people can't affect government that drastically unless their
MPs act.
Check out the facts before you insult.

Surreyman
William Black - 14 Dec 2007 08:08 GMT
> I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.

Tories giving up the chance for 'our brave boys' to kill brown people?

Don't be silly...

It was only after it all turned to sh.t and they saw some political
advantage in opposing the war that they turned nasty.

That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

a.spencer3 - 14 Dec 2007 09:11 GMT
> > I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.
>
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
> --

Gawd, you're as bad as the US B&W political rubbish.

Surreyman
William Black - 14 Dec 2007 09:16 GMT
>> > I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.
>>
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
>
> Gawd, you're as bad as the US B&W political rubbish.

But unlike them...

I'm right...

There is no doubt that the Tories helped the rush to war and were,  at the
time,  crowing about the Labour rebels and calling them cowards.

There's also very little doubt that Cameron's slow distancing himself from
the war is a political ploy intended to garner support for his party in any
forthcoming election.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

a.spencer3 - 14 Dec 2007 12:32 GMT
>> > Gawd, you're as bad as the US B&W political rubbish.
>
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> the war is a political ploy intended to garner support for his party in any
> forthcoming election.

That's hardly the same as "you can rely on them doing the most
>> dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances"!

I also agree with you re Cameron's leaping onto every soundbite bandwagon.

Surreyman
Paul J. Adam - 14 Dec 2007 09:51 GMT
>> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
>> dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...

>Gawd, you're as bad as the US B&W political rubbish.

If I accused David Cameron of breakfasting on broiled babies, William's
only demur would be to insist that Tories would eat their infants alive
and screaming...

Signature

The nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its
warriors, will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done
by fools.
                                                           -Thucydides

paul<dot>j<dot>adam[at]googlemail{dot}.com

D. Spencer Hines - 14 Dec 2007 15:29 GMT
Yes...

Black is a Confirmed, Knee-Jerk British Socialist.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas

>>> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
>>> dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> only demur would be to insist that Tories would eat their infants alive
> and screaming...
conwaycaine - 15 Dec 2007 02:21 GMT
> Yes...
>
> Black is a Confirmed, Knee-Jerk British Socialist.

The worse kind, Mister Hines, the worst kind.
They all believe our American Socialists to be Mongols in pink clothing.
William Black - 15 Dec 2007 10:18 GMT
>> Yes...
>>
>> Black is a Confirmed, Knee-Jerk British Socialist.
>
> The worse kind, Mister Hines, the worst kind.
> They all believe our American Socialists to be Mongols in pink clothing.

You ain't got no Socialists...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

conwaycaine - 15 Dec 2007 15:01 GMT
>>> Yes...
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>>
> You ain't got no Socialists...

Proving my point.
Marx himself was a bit too conservative for this bunch.
Bear in mind, the only group to the left of British Socialists would be the
Old Line Anarchists.
Adam Whyte-Settlar - 18 Dec 2007 00:08 GMT
>> Yes...
>>
>> Black is a Confirmed, Knee-Jerk British Socialist.
>
> The worse kind, Mister Hines, the worst kind.
> They all believe our American Socialists to be Mongols in pink clothing.

We don't call them 'mongols' anymore - they're 'retards' now.
More PC-gone-mad nonsense.
John Briggs - 18 Dec 2007 00:54 GMT
>>> Yes...
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> We don't call them 'mongols' anymore - they're 'retards' now.
> More PC-gone-mad nonsense.

No, it's madness gone PC...
Signature

John Briggs

conwaycaine - 19 Dec 2007 02:17 GMT
>>> Yes...
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> We don't call them 'mongols' anymore - they're 'retards' now.
> More PC-gone-mad nonsense.

Retards?
They are still struggling to bring about a realignment of the World's wealth
distribution.
Inept perhaps but not retarded.
Osric - 25 Dec 2007 00:11 GMT
> Yes...
>
> Black is a Confirmed, Knee-Jerk British Socialist.

As opposed to a knee-jerk reactionary?
Signature


                          Osric

THE BORDERS OF MY COUNTRY
RUN AROUND THE SOLES OF MY FEET

William Black - 15 Dec 2007 10:17 GMT
>>> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
>>> dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> only demur would be to insist that Tories would eat their infants alive
> and screaming...

Never raw.

The man's a product of Eaton and Oxford...

Sautéed and served with a sprig of parsley.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

John Briggs - 15 Dec 2007 19:29 GMT
>>>> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the
>>>> most dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>
> The man's a product of Eaton and Oxford...

You've done it again :-)

Should I wheel out my Eaton Square gag?
Signature

John Briggs

William Black - 16 Dec 2007 07:47 GMT
>>>>> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the
>>>>> most dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
>
> You've done it again :-)

I was wondering who was awake...

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

John Cartmell - 14 Dec 2007 10:04 GMT
> > That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
> > dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...

> Gawd, you're as bad as the US B&W political rubbish.

True.
I know an honourable Tory councillor. One. ;-)

Signature

    John Cartmell    john@finnybank.com    0845 006 8822 or 0161 969 9820
    Qercus magazine    FAX +44 (0)8700-519-527        www.qercus.com
    Qercus - the best guide to RISC OS computing

Renia - 14 Dec 2007 10:27 GMT
>> I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.
>
> Tories giving up the chance for 'our brave boys' to kill brown people?

You are prejudiced in a very ugly way.

> Don't be silly...

You are silly.

> It was only after it all turned to sh.t and they saw some political
> advantage in opposing the war that they turned nasty.

They were told the same lies we were.

> That's the thing about the Tories,  you can rely on them doing the most
> dishonorable thing possible in just about all circumstances...

And you think the Labour Party honourable?
Andrew Swallow - 14 Dec 2007 15:45 GMT
[snip]

> I still don't understand why the opposition bankrolled him.

1. We knew that the Arabs would attack Britain so it was a matter of
   "when" rather than "if".
2. The right wingers knew better than to trust the USA with all that
   oil.  Get our own men on the ground.  Look where the Iraqi and
   Iranian oil fields are and then look where the British forces are.

Andrew Swallow
a.spencer3 - 14 Dec 2007 16:47 GMT
> [snip]
>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>     oil.  Get our own men on the ground.  Look where the Iraqi and
>     Iranian oil fields are and then look where the British forces are.

1/ The Arabs haven't yet attacked us.

2/ And the Brit troops soon won't be.

Surreyman
Andrew Swallow - 14 Dec 2007 17:31 GMT
>> [snip]
>>
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>
> 1/ The Arabs haven't yet attacked us.

Some muslims did attack Britain on 7 July 2005
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4694069.stm>

Others did in August 2007
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/6929991.stm>

> 2/ And the Brit troops soon won't be.

Read the small print as well as the big print.
Note:  There is no oil fields *inside* the city of Basra.

> Surreyman
Jack Linthicum - 14 Dec 2007 17:36 GMT
> >> [snip]
>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>
> > Surreyman

But it all comes there in the pipelines.
William Black - 15 Dec 2007 10:19 GMT
>>> [snip]
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> Others did in August 2007
> <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/6929991.stm>

No Arabs involved.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

Andrew Swallow - 15 Dec 2007 23:55 GMT
>>>> [snip]
>>>>
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
>
> No Arabs involved.

Look again. Iraqis are Arabs.
"The second man in the vehicle - Iraqi doctor Bilal Talal Samad Abdullah -
has since been charged with conspiracy to cause explosions.
"
William Black - 16 Dec 2007 07:49 GMT
>>>>> [snip]
>>>>>
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> "The second man in the vehicle - Iraqi doctor Bilal Talal Samad Abdullah -
> has since been charged with conspiracy to cause explosions.

Sorry,  I thought you meant the bunch who pulled the fuse and didn't go bang
rather than the bunch who ran a car into a door and set fire to it.

I've seen more damage caused by city-centre drunks on a Saturday night in
Hull than that bunch of comical imbeciles managed.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

Andrew Swallow - 16 Dec 2007 17:55 GMT
>>>>>> [snip]
>>>>>>
[quoted text clipped - 26 lines]
> I've seen more damage caused by city-centre drunks on a Saturday night
> in Hull than that bunch of comical imbeciles managed.

Unfortunately Britain is being attacked by Muslims from more than
one country.  Since we cannot fight all the Islamic countries
simultaneously we will have to fight them one at a time.  Like the
Cold War this will take generations to complete.

We will also have to ensure that no one is teaching treason in
Mosques in Britain.

Andrew Swallow
D. Spencer Hines - 16 Dec 2007 18:13 GMT
True...

Just as I've been saying for years now.

DSH

> Unfortunately Britain is being attacked by Muslims from more than
> one country.  Since we cannot fight all the Islamic countries
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> Andrew Swallow
a.spencer3 - 17 Dec 2007 08:26 GMT
> True...
>
> Just as I've been saying for years now.

Then take issue with the nations of the 9/11 bastards, or the countries that
trained them.

Twit.

Surreyman
conwaycaine - 17 Dec 2007 14:39 GMT
>> True...
>>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> Twit.

But Surreyman, the Saudi rulers are our friends.
a.spencer3 - 17 Dec 2007 15:10 GMT
> >> True...
> >>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>
> But Surreyman, the Saudi rulers are our friends.

And Bush's business colleagues I believe?
Silly me.

Surreyman
Jack Linthicum - 17 Dec 2007 15:13 GMT
> > >> True...
>
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
> Surreyman

No those are the bin-Ladins.
conwaycaine - 19 Dec 2007 02:13 GMT
>> >> True...
>> >>
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> And Bush's business colleagues I believe?
> Silly me.

If that I have no doubt.
Where there is money to be made.........................
William Black - 17 Dec 2007 05:54 GMT
>>>>>>> [snip]
>>>>>>>
[quoted text clipped - 29 lines]
> Unfortunately Britain is being attacked by Muslims from more than
> one country.

The majority of them seem to have been either British or long term residents
in the UK.

Since we cannot fight all the Islamic countries
> simultaneously we will have to fight them one at a time.

Define 'Islamic country' in this case please.

Like the
> Cold War this will take generations to complete.
>
> We will also have to ensure that no one is teaching treason in
> Mosques in Britain.

Define 'treason' in this case please.

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

Andrew Swallow - 17 Dec 2007 06:06 GMT
> "Andrew Swallow" <am.swallow@btinternet.com> wrote in message
[snip]

>> Unfortunately Britain is being attacked by Muslims from more than
>> one country.
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>
> Define 'Islamic country' in this case please.

Since we only need to fight Britain's enemies I will allow the
countries to volunteer for this fate.

> Like the
>> Cold War this will take generations to complete.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> Define 'treason' in this case please.

Making war within the King's kingdom.  Basically killing people.
To cover bombers and shooters plus their planners, trainers,
weapons (bomb) makers, organisers and recruiters.

Andrew Swallow
William Black - 17 Dec 2007 06:10 GMT
>> "Andrew Swallow" <am.swallow@btinternet.com> wrote in message
> [snip]
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
> To cover bombers and shooters plus their planners, trainers,
> weapons (bomb) makers, organisers and recruiters.

I believe that they've already taken steps to eliminate these subjects from
the range of activities taught in mosques within the UK.

However you can't stop plotters plotting somewhere.

If they did it in a pub would you close the pub?

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle headland
I watched the gift shops glitter in the darkness off the Newborough gate
All these moments will be lost in time,  like icecream on the beach
Time for tea.

a.spencer3 - 17 Dec 2007 08:26 GMT
> > Making war within the King's kingdom.  Basically killing people.
> To cover bombers and shooters plus their planners, trainers,
> weapons (bomb) makers, organisers and recruiters.

Which King?

Surreyman
Andrew Swallow - 17 Dec 2007 19:37 GMT
>>> Making war within the King's kingdom.  Basically killing people.
>> To cover bombers and shooters plus their planners, trainers,
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> Surreyman

The king was Edward III who passed the Treason Act in 1351.  The
current Queen counts as a king.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_treason_in_the_United_Kingdom>

Andrew Swallow
a.spencer3 - 15 Dec 2007 12:24 GMT
> >> [snip]
> >>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>
> > Surreyman

Those Muslims were not Arabs. There's a difference.

Detail which oil fields the Brits currently hold.

Your ignorance is repeated with each of your posts.

Surreyman
John Kane - 15 Dec 2007 18:33 GMT
> > > Nope.
> > > 80% of Brits didn't want Blair to invade.
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
>
> Surreyman

I remember hearing  an interview with a UK Tory politician (MP ?)  who
quite clearly said something to the effect of " It does not matter if
the evidence was cooked, the important thing is we supported the USA."

IIRC it was on CBC in Canada but even so it was a remarkably honest
and or cyncal statement.
John Kane, Kingston ON Canada

John Kane, Kingston ON Canada
Adam Whyte-Settlar - 14 Dec 2007 14:48 GMT
>> It's a myth that seems to be common in the neo-imperialist US - that
>> anyone in the UK gives the slightest toss about 'the loss of our empire'.

> I was referring to Hines, not the British people.

Beg your pudding sir.

> BTW The Poodle, Tony had something to do with it too. So the British
> people has some blood on their hands too.

To an extent for sure, though our dear God-fearing Tony wasn't exactly
perceived as being the annointed one whilst he was kissing Bush's puckered
arse.
However, in his divine wisdom, he decided to adhere to the council of his
'voices' rather than to the (very loudly) expressed majority view of the
British electorate.
That's why he's on the dole the now.
Paul J Gans - 13 Dec 2007 03:56 GMT
In soc.history.medieval dapra <dapra1@comcast.net> wrote:

>> Yep...
>>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>>
>> Lux et Veritas et Libertas

>Bush managed to add $3 trillions to the budget deficit, quadrupled the
>price of oil, generate a trillion yearly trade deficit, devalue the
>Dollar by 45% against the Euro. What a performance! The Corporate
>Oligarchy and Hugo Chavez must love it!

>What Gans or the Democrats want is insignificant. The Corporate
>Oligarchy wants to run the gravy train for ever. $12 billions of tax
>payers money for Iraq every month, that's like hog heaven for the
>military and oil plutocracy. Their goal of bankrupting the US
>government, turning the US into a banana Republic, is almost achieved.

I don't want anything.  I posted what was likely to happen if
we invaded Iraq.  I was quite right.  And I wasn't alone in this.  
A number of others did the same.

This disaster, for that is what it is as you will all come to
realize when you cool down, could have been avoided.  NO goal
originally set by Bush has been realized -- other than the removal
of Saddam.  No goal set by Bush after the invasion has been
attained either.

What I wanted was for us NOT to do this idiotic deed.  I
wanted us to get bin Laden (remember him?  Hines has long
since forgotten all about good old bin Laden.)  And I wanted
us to make a success out of Afghanistan.  We are in the process
of blowing that too.

What I want now is a way of getting out of Iraq without causing
political and economic turmoil.  I don't see any way to do that.
Short of that, I want out NOW.  There is no point in wasting more
lives of our guys, our allies, and Iraqis.

The Iraqi government, as anyone with a functioning brain cell
can see, is doing nothing except waiting us out.  They want us
to go home so that the Shi'a government can put paid to the
Sunni.  Washington is dimly starting to realize this.  There
is no way to stop it.  The current government will wait a
decade if need be.

We can't afford a decade in Iraq.

>Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The
>collapse of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the
>International Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.

It isn't too late to stop that from happening.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

dapra - 13 Dec 2007 05:24 GMT
> In soc.history.medieval dapra <dapra1@comcast.net> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
> we invaded Iraq.  I was quite right.  And I wasn't alone in this.  
> A number of others did the same.

Well.. I did not read your post at the time. But I did not see a
disaster. I thought, Bush would follow a more conventional imperialism.
Chop off the head of the Sadamm regime, bribe some of his underlings to
sell out their country. Mission would have been accomplished!
Colonization in the right track!

> This disaster, for that is what it is as you will all come to
> realize when you cool down, could have been avoided.  NO goal
> originally set by Bush has been realized -- other than the removal
> of Saddam.  No goal set by Bush after the invasion has been
> attained either.

I am cool. No goals or goals articulated, would have made any
difference. Bush lies and he had no other choice but to do so. He
couldn't say, I want to take over the oil resources of the Gulf and
rule, control the Worlds economy.

> What I wanted was for us NOT to do this idiotic deed.  I
> wanted us to get bin Laden (remember him?  Hines has long
> since forgotten all about good old bin Laden.)  And I wanted
> us to make a success out of Afghanistan.  We are in the process
> of blowing that too.

Bin Laden is an asset of the Bush regime. Why would they get him? He
keeps the GWOT running for ever.

> What I want now is a way of getting out of Iraq without causing
> political and economic turmoil.  I don't see any way to do that.
> Short of that, I want out NOW.  There is no point in wasting more
> lives of our guys, our allies, and Iraqis.

You may want out, but not Bush, Cheney or the neocons or not even the
Democrats. The gravy train is just to good for the oil, military
oligarchy. Though the rest of the oligarchy is getting tired of, fed up
with the war.

> The Iraqi government, as anyone with a functioning brain cell
> can see, is doing nothing except waiting us out.  They want us
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> We can't afford a decade in Iraq.

We couldn't afford 4 years of war. But... nobody asked you or me. The
currency exchange makes the final decision.

>>Maybe some Brits, imperialist piglets like you, love it too. The
>>collapse of the American Empire, transferring its power over to the
>>International Corporate Oligarchy, eases the pain of losing your Empire.
>
> It isn't too late to stop that from happening.
redc1c4 - 13 Dec 2007 05:46 GMT
> > In soc.history.medieval dapra <dapra1@comcast.net> wrote:
> >
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> sell out their country. Mission would have been accomplished!
> Colonization in the right track!

except that wasn't the goal to anyone but you & other deluded fools like you.

redc1c4,
my cat is smarter than you, and he's a Persian. %-)
Signature

"Enlisted men are stupid, but extremely cunning and sly, and bear
considerable watching."

Army Officer's Guide

Tiglath - 13 Dec 2007 17:29 GMT
> In soc.history.medieval dapra <dap...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
> >> Yep...
>
> >> Gans, in concert with many Democrats, WANTS Iraq to end like Vietnam -- so
> >> they can make political capital and blame Bush.

> I don't want anything.  I posted what was likely to happen if
> we invaded Iraq.  I was quite right.  And I wasn't alone in this.
> A number of others did the same.

Damn right!

And the archives can confirm it.

Mr. Hines is the one who had been proven to be DEAD WRONG when he
swallowed whole the White House assertions on the wisdom of invading
Iraq, and his evaluation of George W. Bush as president.

Frankly, it wasn't that hard for Paul and many others to see that the
evidence for a casus belli was dubious and insufficient, and that war
WAS NOT a measure of last resort.

But partisan blinders led quite a few astray.   Many of the hawks that
were posting in 2003 are now gone.   Only Mr. Hines remains undaunted
and unsinkable, floating all over the place, flaunting his large
blinders.

Cautious to the hilt, though never quite enough, he won't reveal his
beliefs.   Does he think we have achieved victory in Iraq?  Is victory
around the corner?  Does he still think invading Iraq was a good
idea?
James Beck - 15 Dec 2007 04:31 GMT
>In soc.history.medieval dapra <dapra1@comcast.net> wrote:

>What I wanted was for us NOT to do this idiotic deed.  I
>wanted us to get bin Laden (remember him?  Hines has long
>since forgotten all about good old bin Laden.)  And I wanted
>us to make a success out of Afghanistan.  We are in the process
>of blowing that too.

Probably already blown, really. Once Pakistan (unofficially) stopped
pursuing the 'bad' guys, a purely military solution in Afghanistan
became just as impractical for the US as it was for the Soviet Union.

OTOH, I suppose the US could try to win in Afghanistan by invading
Pakistan, which is also unstable and much more dangerous than Iran,
toppling Musharraf/restoring Bhutto, who then attempts to crush the
ISI and tries to quash ethnic unrest [Maybe. It's also possible that
she's faking opposition). It's the tail wagging the dog, but not
unlike trying to win in Iraq by invading Iran and Syria.

Incremental thinking is scary, but fascinating.

The one plan that I think *might* still work is a crash program to
clear Afghanistan's mine fields. That would roughly  double the amount
of arable land available to feed the population. IIRC, there are about
2,000 deminers working there today. Unfortunately, manual demining is
tedious and slow.

Three main problems hamper the effort: identifying the edge of a
minefield, clearing vegatation, and false starts due to metal
detection problems. Of the three, the last is the biggest problem.
Maybe some of your students would be interested.

>What I want now is a way of getting out of Iraq without causing
>political and economic turmoil.  I don't see any way to do that.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>is no way to stop it.  The current government will wait a
>decade if need be.

Not very plausible. The Saudis won't tolerate it.

Nevertheless, they are waiting. They cut an oil deal for debt relief
back when oil was cheap. The net present value of that deal was
positive for oil prices below US$80 per barrel, but it isn't very
appealing at the moment, and they don't want to honor it. In addition
to being economically unappealing, there's a real chance that letting
the deals would get them executed after the US withdraws.

Last summer, some of the oil commissioners were proposing a tighter
split requirement for the deal. That would have kept NPV positive at
higher oil prices. The last I read, at least one member of the
commission (Shafiq and probably al-Kasim) have been recommending that
the oil companies go for rehab of the existing oil fields rather than
development. I assume that they mean 'on credit', so they are
essentially recommending that the government renege on the debt deal
and tell them to go f.ck themselves.

The current situation is difficult. The US is running an expensive
unilateral war. Historically, that is associated with downward
pressure on the dollar. Resource producers try to maintain the real
value of the commodities they produce, hence a lower dollar means
higher oil prices and less pressure on Iraq to make a deal.
Paradoxically, US withdrawal will probably mean a higher dollar, lower
oil prices, and a return to the pressures that brought here in the
first place, none of which has changed.

Forcing the Iraqis to accept an oil deal probably won't work. They'll
repudiate it as soon as we're gone. Asking them to bring more oil
resources into production runs counter to human nature. In their
national myth, the oil cartel gives them power. Add to the mix the
recent hints that Saudi Arabia may be peaking. In the evolving dream,
conservation of the oil resource leaves Iraq in the driver's seat
10-20 years down the road.

Ironically, achieving the objective of breaking the hold of the cartel
over the future of the global economy may mean maintaining a
semi-permanent presence there. Regardless, attacking one of its
members in this way and revealing their fundamental weakness to them
all strikes me as a recipe for nuclear proliferation.

>We can't afford a decade in Iraq.

One? Think 3 or 4 decades. Basically, until either the prevailing
price of oil stays permanently high enough to justify continuous
extraction of tertiary resources like western oil shale, or oil is
replaced as a primary energy source, the global economy will be
vulnerable to kooks, would-be monopolists, dictators and, of course,
cowboys.
Michael Siemon - 15 Dec 2007 04:51 GMT
...

> >What I wanted was for us NOT to do this idiotic deed.  I
> >wanted us to get bin Laden (remember him?  Hines has long
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> she's faking opposition). It's the tail wagging the dog, but not
> unlike trying to win in Iraq by invading Iran and Syria.

You have a wonderfully genial perspective. Well illustrated by your
further remarks about Iraq, e.g.
...

> Forcing the Iraqis to accept an oil deal probably won't work. They'll
> repudiate it as soon as we're gone. Asking them to bring more oil
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> vulnerable to kooks, would-be monopolists, dictators and, of course,
> cowboys.

It just gets better and better, doesn't it?
Paul J Gans - 15 Dec 2007 18:04 GMT
In soc.history.medieval James Beck <jdbeck11209@yahoo.com> wrote:

Interesting, Jim.  You and I do not always agree on all things,
but I agree with you on this, with of course some reservations.

>>What I wanted was for us NOT to do this idiotic deed.  I
>>wanted us to get bin Laden (remember him?  Hines has long
>>since forgotten all about good old bin Laden.)  And I wanted
>>us to make a success out of Afghanistan.  We are in the process
>>of blowing that too.

>Probably already blown, really. Once Pakistan (unofficially) stopped
>pursuing the 'bad' guys, a purely military solution in Afghanistan
>became just as impractical for the US as it was for the Soviet Union.

I can't argue with that.  Invading Iraq probably killed any chance
in Afghanistan, which means that when all is over and done with,
we will still have troubles coming from there.

>OTOH, I suppose the US could try to win in Afghanistan by invading
>Pakistan, which is also unstable and much more dangerous than Iran,
>toppling Musharraf/restoring Bhutto, who then attempts to crush the
>ISI and tries to quash ethnic unrest [Maybe. It's also possible that
>she's faking opposition). It's the tail wagging the dog, but not
>unlike trying to win in Iraq by invading Iran and Syria.

I doubt that would work.  Even a benovolent invasion (and no
US invasion at this point would be seen as benevolent) often
unites factions against the invaders.  A typical example is
the French Revolution where a very badly divided France was
unified by outside invasion aimed at restoring the monarchy.
Even monarchists joined the Revolutionary army and it probably
sealed the fate of the King.

Everybody from that neck of the woods tells me that Bhutto is
a crook from a crooked family, they also tell me that she is
the best of a very bad lot.  I take this to mean that even if
we installed Bhutto, that would probably be the kiss of death
for her and there'd be a coup as soon as we turned our backs.
>Incremental thinking is scary, but fascinating.

>The one plan that I think *might* still work is a crash program to
>clear Afghanistan's mine fields. That would roughly  double the amount
>of arable land available to feed the population. IIRC, there are about
>2,000 deminers working there today. Unfortunately, manual demining is
>tedious and slow.

>Three main problems hamper the effort: identifying the edge of a
>minefield, clearing vegatation, and false starts due to metal
>detection problems. Of the three, the last is the biggest problem.
>Maybe some of your students would be interested.

I'm a theory guy.  But I like your idea.  No matter what it would
help our image.  And if we put some bright folks to work on the
problem (and fund the research) a solution might be forthcoming.
This too would enhance our somewhat tattered international
reputation.

>>What I want now is a way of getting out of Iraq without causing
>>political and economic turmoil.  I don't see any way to do that.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>>is no way to stop it.  The current government will wait a
>>decade if need be.

>Not very plausible. The Saudis won't tolerate it.

I don't know if that can change anything.  The Iranians will help
the Shi'a.  I'm not implying genocide of any sort, but a serious
effort to put the Sunni in their "true" place.  Even free national
elections would do that.  The problem for the Shi'a is that the
Sunni have militias that are, among other things, currently being
armed by the Saudis and the Americans.

I'm well aware that neither the Sunnis nor the Shi'a are single
entities.  The situation is vastly complicated by, for example,
Sadr's wanting to be the major leader -- either himself or by
acting as kingmaker.

>Nevertheless, they are waiting. They cut an oil deal for debt relief
>back when oil was cheap. The net present value of that deal was
>positive for oil prices below US$80 per barrel, but it isn't very
>appealing at the moment, and they don't want to honor it. In addition
>to being economically unappealing, there's a real chance that letting
>the deals would get them executed after the US withdraws.

Yup.  It is also possible that the change could be made
by coup after the US leaves.  What would we do?  Reinvade?

>Last summer, some of the oil commissioners were proposing a tighter
>split requirement for the deal. That would have kept NPV positive at
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>essentially recommending that the government renege on the debt deal
>and tell them to go f.ck themselves.

>The current situation is difficult. The US is running an expensive
>unilateral war. Historically, that is associated with downward
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>oil prices, and a return to the pressures that brought here in the
>first place, none of which has changed.

Which is yet another argument for withdrawal.  Consider:  right
now the US dollar's value is not reflected in prices in the US.
Dollar denominated goods, such as oil, can't float down with the
dollar forever.  And foreign exporters can't afford to subsidize
the US economy forever.

My guess is that the present administration has been hard at work
keeping the economic ship upright.  That might be able to continue
through next November.  But after that?

Of course it is very likely that the next president will be a
democrat.  And the oncoming economic storm will then take place
on the democrat's watch -- and they will be blamed by the
republicans and everybody else for it.  [N.B.  If the tables
were turned, the democrats would blame the republicans.  Reality
doesn't play a large role in this.]

So probably the first thing a new democratic administration would
do is pull out of Iraq in an attempt to get the economic situation
under control.  Of course, that won't really do it because the
continuing costs of the war will be enormous, even after any
withdrawal.

At least that's the way I see it.

>Forcing the Iraqis to accept an oil deal probably won't work. They'll
>repudiate it as soon as we're gone. Asking them to bring more oil
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>conservation of the oil resource leaves Iraq in the driver's seat
>10-20 years down the road.

>Ironically, achieving the objective of breaking the hold of the cartel
>over the future of the global economy may mean maintaining a
>semi-permanent presence there. Regardless, attacking one of its
>members in this way and revealing their fundamental weakness to them
>all strikes me as a recipe for nuclear proliferation.

Here's where I don't fully agree.  I don't think the US can stay
in Iraq.  Political realities at home will see to that.  And I
also think that nuclear proliferation is coming down the road like
a speeding freight train.

It is amazing to me that we've been able to stave off proliferation
this long.  The technology is out there and the needed facilities
are *almost* off-the-shelf.  I assume that every major nation from
Indonesia to Brazil is at least investigating the possibility of
going nuclear and a fair number of minor ones such as Egypt are
probably looking at it too.

There are two plusses involved.  One is being able to build one's
own power reactors.  The other is ending US world hegemony nuclearwise.

>>We can't afford a decade in Iraq.

>One? Think 3 or 4 decades. Basically, until either the prevailing
>price of oil stays permanently high enough to justify continuous
>extraction of tertiary resources like western oil shale, or oil is
>replaced as a primary energy source, the global economy will be
>vulnerable to kooks, would-be monopolists, dictators and, of course,
>cowboys.

I'm posting from soc.history.medieval.  One of the things I've
often spoken about is the fact that my grandparents (born in the
1870's) grew up in a society much more like the Middle Ages than
we are like the 1870's.  The change has been phenomenal.  My
grandfather knew how to harness a horse and drive a team and he
knew how to make soap at home.

In my opinion we are coming into a period of world change that
will make 2050 a totally different place compared to 2000.  You've
only touched on a few of the coming changes.

Smart policy in Washington would be to keep an eye on the future.
It is coming.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

D. Spencer Hines - 15 Dec 2007 18:24 GMT
Hilarious!

Pogue Gans ---- still hand-wringing, whining and posting fatuous bromides
such as:

> Smart policy in Washington would be to keep an eye on the future.
> It is coming.

He's drinking that cheap Czech beer again -- and posting.

DSH

Lux et Veritas et Libertas

> I can't argue with that.  Invading Iraq probably killed any chance
> in Afghanistan, which means that when all is over and done with,
> we will still have troubles coming from there....

> Of course it is very likely that the next president will be a
> democrat. [sic]  And the oncoming economic storm will then take place
> on the democrat's [sic] watch -- and they will be blamed by the
> republicans [sic] and everybody else for it.  [N.B.  If the tables
> were turned, the democrats [sic] would blame the republicans.  [sic]
> Reality doesn't play a large role in this.]...

> In my opinion we are coming into a period of world change that
> will make 2050 a totally different place compared to 2000.  You've
> only touched on a few of the coming changes.
>
> Smart policy in Washington would be to keep an eye on the future.
> It is coming.
William Black - 16 Dec 2007 07:35 GMT
> Everybody from that neck of the woods tells me that Bhutto is
> a crook from a crooked family, they also tell me that she is
> the best of a very bad lot.  I take this to mean that even if
> we installed Bhutto, that would probably be the kiss of death
> for her and there'd be a coup as soon as we turned our backs.

Welcome to South Asia,  a place where an honest politician is one that stays
bought.

Mrs Bhutto is bright enough to stay bought (she's actually very bright
indeed,  the Oxford Union doesn't elect idiots as chairman').

Signature

William Black

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Barbeques on fire by the chalets past the castle head