History Forum / General / British History / May 2008

U.S. Cites Big Gains Against Al-Qaeda

Group Is Facing Setbacks Globally, CIA Chief Says
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 30, 2008

Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent
al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now portrays the terrorist movement
as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive
throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven
along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major gains against
al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an increasingly successful campaign
to destabilize the group's core leadership.

While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat, Hayden said Osama
bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and
has largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit
adherents. Two years ago, a CIA study concluded that the U.S.-led war had
become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda, generating cash
donations and legions of volunteers.

All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with The Washington Post
this week that coincided with the start of his third year at the helm of the
CIA.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of
accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic
defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda
globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot
of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of
terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether
the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence
leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has
dramatically increased from previous years. But analysts say the United
States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved
conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut
into its support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is
its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a former top CIA counterterrorism
official who is now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm.
"Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit
themselves."

Others warned that al-Qaeda remains capable of catastrophic attacks and may
be even more determined to stage a major strike to prove its relevance.
"Al-Qaeda's obituary has been written far too often in the past few years
for anyone to declare victory," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at
Georgetown University. "I agree that there has been progress. But we're
indisputably up against a very resilient and implacable enemy."

A landmark study last August by the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies described
the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area as a de facto al-Qaeda haven in which
terrorist leaders were reorganizing for attacks against the West. But Hayden
said counterterrorism successes extend even to that lawless region. Although
he would not discuss CIA operations in the area, U.S. intelligence agencies
have carried out several attacks there since January, using unmanned
Predator aircraft for surgical strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban safe
houses.

"The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaeda continues, and
keeps them off balance -- even in their best safe haven along the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border," Hayden said.

But terrorism experts note the lack of success in the U.S. effort to capture
bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Intelligence officials say
they think both are living in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal area in
locations known only to a few top aides. Hayden said capturing or killing
the pair remains a top priority, though he noted the difficulties in finding
them in a rugged, remote region where the U.S. military is officially
forbidden to operate.

The Bush administration has been watching political developments in Pakistan
with apprehension, worried that the country's newly elected leadership will
not be as tolerant of occasional unilateral U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda as
was the government of President Pervez Musharraf, a close ally in the U.S.
fight against terrorism.

Hayden declined to discuss what agreements, if any, have been brokered with
Pakistan's new leaders, but he said, "We're comfortable with the authorities
we have."

Since the start of the year, he said, al-Qaeda's global leadership has lost
three senior officers, including two who succumbed "to violence," an
apparent reference to Predator strikes that killed terrorist leaders Abu
Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi in Pakistan. He also cited a
successful blow against "training activity" in the region but offered no
details. "Those are the kinds of things that delay and disrupt al-Qaeda's
planning," Hayden said.

Despite the optimistic outlook, he said he is concerned that the progress
against al-Qaeda could be halted or reversed because of what he considers
growing complacency and a return to the mind-set that existed before the
attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"We remain worried, and frankly, I wonder why some other people aren't
worried, too," he said. His concern stems in part from improved
intelligence-gathering that has bolstered the CIA's understanding of
al-Qaeda's intent, he said.

"The fact that we have kept [Americans] safe for pushing seven years now has
got them back into the state of mind where 'safe' is normal," he said. "Our
view is: Safe is hard-won, every 24 hours."

Hayden, who has previously highlighted a gulf between Washington and its
European allies on how to battle terrorism, said he is troubled that
Congress and many in the media are "focused less on the threat and more on
the tactics the nation has chosen to deal with the threat" -- a reference to
controversial CIA interrogation techniques approved by Hayden's
predecessors.

"The center line of the national discussion has moved, and in our business,
our center line is more shaped by the reality of the threat," Hayden said.

On Iraq, he said he is encouraged not only by U.S. success against
al-Qaeda's affiliates there, but also by what he described as the steadily
rising competence of the Iraqi military and a growing popular antipathy
toward jihadism.

"Despite this 'cause célebrè' phenomenon, fundamentally no one really liked
al-Qaeda's vision of the future," Hayden said. As a result, the insurgency
is viewed locally as "more and more a war of al-Qaeda against Iraqis," he
said. Hayden specifically cited the recent writings of prominent Sunni
clerics -- including some who used to support al-Qaeda -- criticizing the
group for its indiscriminant killing of Muslim civilians.

While al-Qaeda misplayed its hand with gruesome attacks on Iraqi civilians,
Hayden said, U.S. military commanders and intelligence officials deserve
some of the credit for the shift, because they "created the circumstances"
for it by building strategic alliances with Sunni and Shiite factions, he
said.

Hayden warned, however, that progress in Iraq is being undermined by
increasing interference by Iran, which he accused of supplying weapons,
training and financial assistance to anti-U.S. insurgents. While declining
to endorse any particular strategy for dealing with Iran, he described the
threat in stark terms.

"It is the policy of the Iranian government, approved at the highest levels
of that government, to facilitate the killing of American and other
coalition forces in Iraq.  Period," he said.