History Forum / General / General Topics / August 2005

This PRAVDA article optimistically foresees the future, so nevermind
that virtual blue book comparison crape.

2. Robert Cohen   Aug 30, 12:43 pm     show options

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From: "Robert Cohen" <robtco...@msn.com> - Find messages by this author

Date: 30 Aug 2005 09:43:56 -0700
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Subject: Re: Pravda Predicts the Future
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1. Sir Frederick   Aug 29, 5:05 pm     show options

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Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 14:05:06 -0700
Local: Mon, Aug 29 2005 5:05 pm
Subject: Pravda Predicts the Future
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Read the text. The article's outlook for the US isn't as gloomy as the
title suggests. Europe, though, is circling the bowl.

Brazil, Russia, India and China to outdo Europe and the US
08/29/2005 13:29

The main economic analysts of today share their thoughts of tomorrow

What the year 2020 will be like? Although it seems not a long way
away, still it is wrapped in mystery. Some 50 years ago sci-fi writers
were foretelling the future without any doubts. Experts of today are
more careful in their predictions. The world is changing so quickly
that the human mind is unable to keep up.  Experts from the research
department of Deutsche Bank under famous analyst Dr. Norbert Walter
decided to take a look at the future. Their research is based on
analysis of economic situation in 34 countries.

It turned out that euro zone bankers could not imagine the world
without the US dollar as the main currency and means of payment even
in 2020. According to their forecasts, the world will stay
unidirectional with only one superpower - the USA, GDP of which will
reach $17-18 billion by that time.

Experts from Deutsche Bank certainly expect competition of dollar and
Chinese yuan in 2020. Analysts are sure that in 15 years china and
India will be some of the leading nations of the world. China, for
instance, will become the world assembly shop and the second
superpower, followed by India. However, the latter will have to carry
out reforms more aggressively, Deutsche Bank. "Further reforms will
allow India to keep its growth high at six percent every of next ten
to fifteen years. If the reforms are carried out aggressively the
growth of GDP may reach seven or eight percent", Norbert Walter said
at the seminar of Indian-German Chamber of Commerce.

At the same time the role of the EU will become less and less
important, according to the research. Besides, it is said that the
economies of some EU members including France and Germany will lose
their positions in the world.

The growth rate of Spain and Ireland will be higher than average
European due to the openness of their markets. Another positive factor
in their development will be dynamism of investors, favorable
demographic perspectives and balanced immigration policy. Experts came
to the conclusion that as far as politics is concerned European states
have to develop structural political system that can guarantee their
further integration. Great changes both in economic infrastructure and
social system of European states are needed in order to overcome
negative tendencies.

It is worth mentioning that Deutsche Bank research is contrary to that
made by another European analytical centre. In March investment group
Goldman Sachs published the work of its chief economist Jim O'Neill
about the future of world economy. O'Neill is a legendary economist
that became famous after his main forecast - dollar's landslide -
became a reality.

O'Neill thinks that in terms of living standards Russia will be ahead
of Italy and Germany by 2050. When it comes to GDP it will leave
France and Great Britain behind.

According to O'Neill, four developing countries Brazil, Russia, India
and China (so-called BRIC) will be ahead of six largest industrial
countries of the world in terms of cumulative USD GDP. He says that
China can leave the US behind as early as by 2040, whereas India will
be ahead of Japan by 2035 and Russia can outrun any country in Western
Europe by 2030.

The role of the BRIC economies will grow quicker in the sphere of
energy: in the next 15 years they will consume more energy than the EU
and the US. The growth will be slower in the world motorcar market:
BRIC countries will become leaders only in 2025-2030. The share of the
four countries in the world capital market will be probably not so
big, although it depends on the policy of the countries.

Jim O'Neill does not consider the USA motive power in the economic
progress. He thinks that at the moment China and other BRIC countries
are more important in the accelerating of world economy. They provided
for 40-50 percent of the world economic growth.

The CIA in its long-term strategic forecast views the fate of Russia
differently. According to this prognosis Russia will be able to become
a country with the headlong growing economy, but will not become the
leading economic power. The report says that Russia together with
Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia will belong to a group of countries
where economy will grow faster but will leg behind the world leaders
China and the US.

The authors of CIA Project 2020 say that Russia will not be able to
become one of the economic superpowers because of its failure to solve
social problems: unfavorable demographic situation, spreading AIDS as
well as slowing down in democratic reforms. A serious threat will
remain organized crime and Islamic terrorism.

Nevertheless, these problems will be partly graded by Russia's ability
"to change the vector of economic power". According to the report it
will be the result of the Russia's position as the main supplier of
energy carriers. Russia will be able to provide for the one third of
energetic needs of Europe, with export of energy carriers as the main
constituent of Russian foreign policy.

The report also predicts large-scale but controllable migration from
the Central Asia to Russia: up to a million people can move to Russia
bringing down social tension in Asia and making up for lack of labor
force in Russia.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/20/91/365/16064_forecasts.html

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rre: PRAVA PREDICTS

It appears to me that PRAVDA perceives O-I-L as the major factor of
factors regarding rehabilitating of Russia.

This hints/suggests why Putin insists upon keeping Chechneya (oil),
though that's perhaps overly-simplistic; but then what else really
explains the Russian motivation? Pride? Honor?

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