History Forum / General / General Topics / February 2004

Secrets is the key word there. I have read one essay that says that whiles
the 20th c entury was the American cerntury, adn the 19th was the British,
the 21st could be the Chinesse and it's all due to allowing the Chineese to
get hold of American/western technology, then improove upon it.

Anyone care to elaborate?

The solution to US economic problems will not be found by blaming non-white
nations for stealing jobs.  Trade increases jobs it doesn't destroy them.
The United States is by far the richest country in the world.  What's the
problem?  War is the problem.  The US has a current account deficit with
China of 125 billion dollars per year.  But keeping the US on a war footing
is costing much, much more.  US foreign policy has half the world scared and
the other half pissed off.  Billions of people in the world simply refuse to
buy US goods as a way of protesting US foreign policy.

From time immemorial, one fact has been true.  The richer a nation becomes,
the more costly its labour becomes.  When that happens, as it has to the US,
Japan, Germany and Britain, labour intensive industries look for cheaper
labour.  The US is not the only country that is having these problems.  The
Japanese used South Korea for cheap labour and are now investing heavily in
China, Vietnam and India because they are politically stable, have educated
but cheap workforces and have strong work ethics.  The same is true of
German investments in Eastern Europe.  If the US doesn't buy foreign goods
then where will foreign countries get the money to buy US goods.

US economic problems are partly cyclical, as in a hangover from the boom of
the Clinton years, it is partly a distrust of US securities markets because
of Enron and other scandals.  But it is also because George W Bush is viewed
as a bull in a china shop.  The world views the US as an extremely unstable
country right now.  Foreign investment in the US is at a long time low
because the world is holding back until some sense of order returns to the
US.  Public bad-mouthing the French and Germans simply means French and
German consumers and investors are avoiding anything made in the USA.  The
same is true of Japan and China bashing.  They get revenge by dumping the
dollar which causes increases in the US current account as a lower dollar
means higher import prices.  They then slowly start buying back the dollar
and make a fortune, all paid for by the average American.

If George W Bush gets re-elected who will he attack next?  What weapons of
mass delusion will be discovered in some other defenceless country of brown
people.  If Americans want to know why the world is avoiding them, they
should try reading foreign newspapers, watching foreign television or best
of all books from other countries.  Wake up, climb out of your cocoons and
listen.  The US is no longer in control of the world.  The leading engine of
economic growth today is China.  Within two years the EU will replace the US
as the largest economic community.  Why isn't the US selling in these
markets?  Trade is the answer to economic problems but the US government is
obsessed with dropping bombs on countries that can't fight back.  The
problem is George W Bush.  Replace him with a good leader, either Republican
or Democrat the world doesn't care.  Until then, who knows.

Ken

 Bush has started erecting trade barriers and this has resulted in other
countries beginning to erect equal amounts of trade barriers against the US.
The trouble is that American trade barriers are being erected in industries
that cannot supply the entire US market.  The result is that US consumers
are paying more for the cars because imported steel now costs more.  They
are paying more for their homes because Canadian lumber now costs 27 percent
more with no real benefit to the US economy.  However, the US is selling
less of it's products in the export market because of the resulting trade
wars that have developed.

re: Japan

They have had a serious economic recession for at least 10 years.

Their population is rapidly ageing.

Their cars--imho--are no longer  far superior in price & quality, because, for
instance, Korea is becoming "Japan's Japan" with its electronic and automotive
exports. I currently have 3 Korean-made cars.

The Japanese are seemingly threatened by North Korea and PRC/China; and thus do
depend upon the U.S., but that bad p.r. in Okinawa is a downer.

The Japanese also still do not open up all their agriculture and consumer goods
markets to "free trade," and thus they do seem to tread lightly regarding
beating the sh.t out of the U.S.

CHINA IS POTENTIALLY FIVE JAPANS

South Korea is simply amazing

India, which has nearly a billion people, is definitely adapting itself to the
21st century.

The U.S. currently lacks the smarts of a more adaptive Clinton Administration,
and many of our people are thus understanably pleading for some protectionism.

Yes: If Japan, Saudia Arabia etal call-in their loans (do not renew their debt
holdings), the U.S. financial supremecy expires and the world goes to hell with
us.

It has long been my theory that this is much part of the real reason that real,
substantive energy alternatives to oil have   been a bunch of horseshit.

The U.S. fears the dis-continuance of the "petro-dollar."

If the stronger Euro now becomes the most popular preferred financial currency,
then the U.S. dollar/petro-dollar is more vulnerable to collapse because of our
trillions in D-E-B-T.

If such doesn't scare ya, then you ain't paying attention.

Seemingly the World fears & dislikes the U.S. more now than before 9/11, and
yet everybody (the U.S., Europe, Russia, the Far East, South America, Africa)
is more complexly  inter-dependent too.

This is why I do not think there is going to be an alternative energy paradigm
established.

When the politicos talk about energy conservation, they are not fooling me.

The Russians have also become more dependent upon their oil revenues.

Although it is one way, so is just about  everything else.  Also, usa can
hurt japan WAY more than japan
can hurt usa economically.

On the military front, despite major misconceptions, japan is a major
military power.  Japan probably have
many nukes or capacity and technology to build hundreds in short period of
time.  It has factories and owns factories through out the world.  It has
the best technologies for tankers and cargo ships.
And surprising fact is it's navy is modern and 2nd only to usa.

Japan is wimpy nation with economy centered on export to usa mainly.

Yes, I admit, that I do not know much about modern world economic, it is
simply an offshoot of my knowledge of history, hence I am specifically
starting this thread in the hope that someone can fill in the blanks.
I have no real interest in economics, but a big interest in hisstory, hence
I am wanting someone to fill in the blanks...

Dont you know that values are education and to some extent money itself?
You can convert sand into intel p4/itanium etc.   Of course it dont help if
rest of world get educated
with cheap computers.

About history....  Japan was one of most isolated country for 200 years.
And it has raining season at beginning of summer which are awesome for
farming.

Recently japan was so successful in 80s it had to stop their ways and teach
the population to spend money on junk such as fashion, cell phones etc.
Also it is funny that currency has to be kept so high value when it should
be 180yen to dollar.

I've not heard about this before. Could you elaborate?

--Ty