Re: 10th Less One: LBJ Not a Congressman

On Jul 2, 5:45 pm, Stan Boleslawski <boleslaw...@forpresident.com>
wrote:

The NYA was Austin based; Johnson was born in the 10th district,
however, in Blanco County and the Edwards Plateau in Johnson City.
When he ran, he hadn't been back all that long, save to run the NYA.

Dunno.

Possibly. Not sure what those races are like in the 1930's. There' s
also the chance that like O'Daniel OTL, he can run for governor out of
the blue, more or less, when the vacancy occurs in 1941 as O'Daniel
still wins the Presidency

Yup. This should be fun.

But it will be a very different LBJ with a very different wartime
experience who becomes Senator, Majority Leader, and VP if he enters
as an enlisted man, not a Congressman on leave.

Except, not made of evil.

It should make some of the post-Vietnam antics about, for example,
Kitty Dukakis, either somewhat less effective or somewhat oddedr.

I think he'd end up somewhere like where McNamara did, frankly. That
is in many ways a better fit than Nixon.

I feel like he'd get wheeled out at the 1992 Convention to celebrate
the New Democrats of the New South, and so on.

Her bio is....special.

Agreed; bu I'd assume a living LBJ would have power pried from his
cold, dead hands. Or he'd come back from the dead. Either way.

Anne Richards runs in the 2000 Democratic Primary....

1) Special case 2) Better president that Reagan.

I'd also point out that FDR worship has gone through a few cycles, and
even so, the broad-spec policy stuff is common practice in the G-8;
further, there's a difference between the Democratic faith in FDR and
the Reagan fantasies, such that the GOP believes that Reagan only cut
taxes, as well as using Reagan's foreign policy choices as somehow
axiomatic--such as Wolfowitz involving Reagan on Marcos v. Bush on
Chicken Kiev. perhaps we're far enough away from FDR that it's not as
bad, and maybe the reagan stuff will diminish with time, but it's also
got it's own weird engine driving it now.

Agreed, to a point. There was also the post-1968 chase to restore the
New Deal Coalition, rather than tolerating realignment.

Hey, I'm OK if Crist likes a man in uniform. I just want him to admit
it.

Yeah, it's a special place.

Agreed. I feel like Johnson would shiv with aplomb, though.

I think so, yeah. Then again, I feel as if he as better odds than
Nixon of staging a comeback qua reputation; even Carter was able to
rebound.

Though Lyndon's ATL memoirs may hurt rather than help, eventually.

Best

L

On Jul 2, 12:00 pm, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

True. According to Wiki, LBJ was a high school teacher
in Houston prior to joining Kleberg's Congressional
staff in 1931. The Wiki article is unclear over whether he
lived in Austin prior to running for the 10th District
representing Austin (unless he was Austin-based when
running the Texas National Youth Administration).
What opportunities would Houston have provided
for him, if any?

What statewide office? LBJ dropped out of law
school so AG's out. Lieutenant Governor in
Texas is a more powerful position than in most
states, so that would be out for a novice. Maybe
Agriculture or State?

'48's too early for the GOP to gain any more than the
token presence they held in OTL Texas then ; while
very few Texans had been alive during the ACW and
only the elderly had been born during Reconstruction,
the associations were still there. Not to mention that
Coke Stevenson in TTL may not switch parties and
build up the GOP in Texas.

Very true.

So the obvious parallel is Nixon, not surprisingly.

I could picture Clinton consulting a living (and most
likely very sickly) LBJ during the Balkan Wars, to try
to learn from his mistakes. That is, if even the aged
LBJ would admit making mistakes.

LOL.

Major knock ons there.

Forgetting about FDR?

JFK being the

The party's cult around FDR and the New Deal was
based on substance, and continued to exert a hold
on the party into the mid '80s. Mondale's campaign
in '84 essentially was based on a return to the New
Deal, as if Reagan was just a mere aberration, and
the early '80s recession convinced the party that if
it only returned to the principles of Roosevelt it would
win back power. Obviously no one predicted the
economic recovery in 1984.

(There are parallels with current and future
politics here, with the parties switched, but I
do not care to discuss them.)

If anything, the GOP seems to be more willing to
overlook its past presidents as icons, other than
Lincoln ; the modern GOP seems to be rather
uncomfortable with Teddy Roosevelt as an
iconic figure, and Ike is rarely mentioned as a hero
by current Republicans. Obviously McCain is an
exception when it comes to TR, and he did
cite Ike in one of his 2008 campaign speeches
(the first time in my memory that a GOP
presidential nominee referenced Ike in a speech.)
ISTR reading about Charlie Crist mentioning
Eisenhower as a hero*, but it's surprising how
rare his name comes up in the party nowadays.
From observing Republican discourse, it seems
like the party would like to forget every one of its
icons post-Lincoln and pre-Reagan, other than
Karl Rove and co. trying to make McKinley into
the icon he was not.

He'd at least have some private things to say
about Iran-Contra - probably not critical
towards its aims in Central America but
critical as to how it was carried out. I don't
know if he'd go public, but he'd still know
enough to take some people down if he
chose to talk. Unless Reagan appoints him
to head the investigative commission that
John Tower headed in OTL - if so, it wouldn't
be the first time that LBJ was involved with an
investigative report that would be widely
questioned by many. ):

Yes, he'd still stay involved in Texas politics - I don't think
he'd be welcome in the national party unless he does
experience rehabilitation under Clinton.

Best,
Stan B.

*No BoP violation intended, as I don't live in FL and thus
could not have voted in any election Crist ran in or is
running in next year. I don't mean for this post to be a
discussion of Crist, his policies, or his personal life.

On Jul 2, 11:57 am, Stan Boleslawski <boleslaw...@forpresident.com>
wrote:

He'd have to beat the Austin machine, which had the back of Tom
Miller, who was Mayor from 1933-1949, and 1955-1961. He would, in
fact, be rated as a carpet bagger in that case.

He could try statewide office as a means to grab a congressional seat.
My impression is that that was the way to get a Congressional Seat.

Agreed. But the question is, if his path is paved by service in WWII,
and then he defeats O'Daniel in 1948 as per OTL, how different is he
going to be? How much does that hurt OTL's Democratic Party, but help
the Rayburn-Roosevelt alliance. That sort of thing.

I'd eliding the non-trivial chance that a non-congressman LBJ would
die during WWII.

I'd be surprised; all his male relations on his father's side died
before 70 or so, but let's run with this.

Probably, at least for a while. He's not going to be on good terms
with the party, I'd think, until 1992. I think it'd be easy for
Clinton to revitalize LBJ's reputation during the 1990's.

Yup.

Doris Kearns Goodwin moves to Austin, is permanently encamped at LBJ's
feet/bedside?

More broadly speaking, I suspect he'll go into relative exile for the
first decade or so, just ranching in Texas, writing his memoirs
(which, ATL, will compete with Caro; that work should be substantially
distorted by his survival). Perhaps a surviving LBJ helps Anne
Richards win in 1994....

The Democrats, however, have never been as attached to projects of
monumentalism and hagiography as the modern-day GOP is; JFK being the
singular case, but that tends to conflate the worship of style, rather
than substance, and is more mired in the narrative arc of the 1960's
than JFK's actual presidency.

Johnson, even with Vietnam, would have a rather interesting arc in
post-presidential life, given that his policies, rather than his
style, might revive and endure. I doubt he could blunt the rise of
Reagan and so on, but LBJ around for Watergate and Iran-Contra would
be...special.

I'd also assume that he's just never going to give up his meddling
ways. He'll retain power in Texas, and probably expand after a while.

Best

L

On Jul 2, 6:52 am, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

I know next to nothing about Texan municipal politics in that
era (other than Maverick being mayor of San Antonio after
losing his Congressional seat). I presume LBJ would be able
to win an election for Mayor of Austin - would that be enough
to give him a springboard to the US Senate without a seat in
the House beforehand?

And I agree that LBJ is eventually going to rise to the
top in politics by hook or by crook. He was too driven
not to.

ObWI: LBJ lives as long as Reagan, which would mean
he'd die in 2001 - effects? Does a living LBJ remain the
Dem president that the Dems would like to forget about
like the dead LBJ in OTL? Or is his reputation rehabilitated?
What is a longer Johnson post-presidency like?

Best,
Stan B.

Yeah, but it's not as if Johnson can really run against him. I suppose
he could run for, dunno, Mayor of Austin or something and then grab a
Congressional seat.

Best

L

Not sure who was the next to die or quit, but the next to be defeated was
Maury Maverick in the 1938 primary...

On Jun 30, 11:32 pm, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

Partially. LBJ had built up all his friends in Kleberg's district, and
never expected to run in Buchanan's. He had to create networks
from scratch. According to Robert Caro, Texas in the 1930s
tended to re-elect Representatives until they died or quit,
so LBJ was just waiting for an opening. (Who was the next
Texas Rep to die or quit after Buchanan? I don't know.)

Is it possible that the Browns wind up in debt, or even busted?

There's already the Tennessee Valley Authority; in theory
it could expand to any other rural area. IIRC, the reason
it didn't come to West Texas before LBJ is that the
region just didn't have a Congressman who both cared
and had the lobbying skills. In theory, there will eventually
be a bright Texan rep who sees the pork and dollar signs,
but it might be a while. Again according to Caro,
the utility companies were unsure they could make
a profit on it even with the government paying for
the start-up. So that bright Texan rep needs to be
not just willing, but actively trying to get it.

I really need to study this more, since it's probably the biggest
difference.

I don't think it was common to run for Senate
straight from an appointed position, especially
because the Senate in Texas was considered
the best position possible. Much better
than being a governor, who had term limits and
a lot of limits on his power. And LBJ was
awfully young in his OTL 1941 Senate run --
without the Congressional position, he
probably can't run.

So he's probably still scheming for the
House. In OTL he became sick of
the House very quickly, but I don't
know if he always saw it as a
mere stepping-stone, or if he
only felt that way after being there.

On February 22, 1937, Congressman James P. Buchanan, chairman of the
House Appropriations Committee, suffered a fatal heart attack.

That triggered a special election which brought then Texas National
Youth Administrator Lyndon B. Johnson onto the national stage and
began his long climb to power. His network of White Stars and friends
from his time as Congressman Kleberg's Secretary formed the building
blocks for his run at Senate and so on.

Let's notch that heart attack down just so; it's not fatal, and
Buchanan will eventually die (he was born in 1867); say, in 1941, also
of a heart attack. In the mean time, life without Lyndon has
progressed in somewhat strange directions:

--Brown and Root, Inc, without the love of Lyndon, may not be able to
build OTL's Buchanan Dam, and get on their way to becoming KBR,
corporate behemoth and war-time profiteers par excellence. The Dam,
and its thorny legal grounds will likely survive, but not the
expansion that was arranged through the relationship between Lyndon
and Alice Glass, whose husband owned the /Austin American Statesman/
among others.

--Buchanan Dam, and other projects, led to a surge in rural
electrification in Texas' Edwards Plateau. None of that happens here,
and the rural electrification part of the New Deal is somewhat
different.

--The Corpus Christi Naval Station isn't built; without Lyndon, B&R
doesn't get a bite at this big contract due to shenanigans revolving
around the Garner-FDR fight in a would-be Texas primary.

--The "compromise" between pro-Garner and pro-FDR forces at the end of
the abortive primaries will have a different post-script. Lyndon won't
play spy for the White House, and at the end of the mess, he won't put
Sam Rayburn between a rock and a hard place, stripping him of much of
his support from the Administration.

More broadly, I'd assume that the FDR-Garner fight goes much the same
way, but that Rayburn, made Speaker, is much closer to the President
through the end of his time in office, having become Speaker. That
could lead interesting places.

Lyndon, not elected to national office, is going struggle to get FDR's
ear or the nation's attention. I doubt he'd stay on as NYA Director
through 1941, and so may move on to being something else, but without
his Congressional Campaign to raise his profile, that'll be more
difficult than OTL. I don't doubt that he'd run if Buchanan dies in
1941, but, should he win, he'd likely resign; alternatively, he could
try to win that Senate seat.

Thoughts?

Best

L