Re: 10th Less One: LBJ Not a Congressman

Well, there's that and there's making aides take dictation while he
was on the toilet, but that's certainly not of the revelatory variety.
As Goodwin's bio demonstrates and Caro's bio attempts to defeat,
Lyndon spent most of his life mythmaking, and would certainly take the
chance of a memoir to solidify his version of events, such as they
were, I'd suppose.

LBJ was usually fairly indiscreet - look at his showing of his
appendicitis scar!

And yes it's good to see you back!

On Jul 3, 3:15 pm, Stan Boleslawski <boleslaw...@forpresident.com>
wrote:

Ah, well. I suppose it'd be more challenging for him to grab Houston
than San Antonio or Austin.

Yeah, whoops.

Agreed; he was also terribly bored by, and bad at, governing, despite
being a magnetic campaigner. Johnson folded a lot of O'Daniel's
tactics into his 1941 campaign and for later use beyond.

Let's give him, say, a career alongside William Manchester. I'd bet
dollars to donuts that Johnson would claim to have raised the flag on
Okinawa the rest of his life. He'll also likely have PTSD; but I can't
imagine that the war would diminish his taste for power, to be
important. But ATL, Major Johnson grabs Texas Senate in 1948,
resuming, by degrees, the arc of his ATL career, probably creating a
similar (though somewhat less fraught) relationship with Sam Rayburn.
Perhaps one Asian war, however, will impact how he runs another.

Oh, I doubt he'd officially apologize,but I think he'd understand the
political value of demonstrating contrition by degrees, rather than
unbending pride.

One should assume, in a wheel chair, given his family's penchant for
heart attacks. He'll probably glam up like FDR, the nut.

Oddly, that may make welfare reform harder to achieve, but healthcare
easier, though HillaryCare will likely still crash and burn.

Agreed. Jeb is more wiley, and thereby, worse, by degrees.

Yeah, so, Richards-Obama 2008?

Yeah; between the Depression and the War, he ends up in a fairly
rarified world-historic spot. I'd assume President Garner and
President Blackmun in Doug's "Life without Franklin" don't go down
quite the same way; or any ATL where the Depression and the War
"belong" as such to different Presidents.

I'd suppose; but it's got the blood sacrifice and the dark terror
driving it; and somewhat unlike FDR, Reagan's' former WH Staff is
laying siege to large swathes of the Country with the Reagan Legacy
Project.

Agreed. Hehehehehe.

I know, my joke was funnier.

It's hilarious to watch them squirm. 'cause TR was fantastic
imperialist.

Right; but I'm sure he'd decide it's not OK if you're a republican; or
rather, not LBJ....

I'd suppose; but I think, even going back to San Marcos, he
appreciates good window dressing. Plus, Lady Bird would help.

I assume it's...through a mirror, darkly.

Best

L

On Jul 2, 3:25 pm, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

Oscar Holcombe had a lock on the mayor's office
during that time. He was the dominant figure in
Houston politics from the 1920s to the 1950s.
However, according to Wiki, there was an
interregnum between 1937-39 when Holcombe
was not mayor. Not really sure why.

I think you mean the US Senate, but Pappy
O'Daniel as POTUS has to be one of the
most original WIs in SHWI history.It's certainly an
unlikely TL - it would require FDR to not run for
a third term and Garner not having ambitions to
succeed him (presumably O'Daniel would have
backed a Garner candidacy), not to mention
no candidate more acceptable to Northerners
being able to get the nomination. Sounds like
a recipe for Willkie to get the White House.
I really don't think O'Daniel would win any
states outside of the Solid South (Oklahoma
included) except for maybe New Mexico and
Arizona (AZ was still a very Dem state in 1940).
The rest of the West goes to Willkie, as does
the North and Midwest.

His personality is going to be changed, that's for
sure. Not sure how.

LBJ apologizing for his actions doesn't fit his
general personality. At least, not in public.

Oh yes. He'd be seen as the Father Of The
New South, and venerated by the Southern
wing of the party. Sounds like a good final
public appearance.

I can imagine.

That's my presumption as well. Which means a second
term for Richards. Alt-LBJ in TTL's 1998 will already be
too sick to do much - would W. try to be governor
again? Most likely in TTL, the GOP race in 2000 is
between Jeb and McCain.

She'd be a better pick than Lieberman as Gore's
VP.

Extremely special case considering the
circumstances of his presidency and
what he had to deal with.

The FDR worship has diminished as the number of people
who were adults during his presidency has diminished. I
suppose when the number of Americans who were adults
during Reagan's presidency starts to diminish, Reagan
worship won't be as blatant.

and maybe the reagan stuff will diminish with time, but it's also

True, and Carter's failure was seen by the party as
a failure to stand by its principles established by
Roosevelt as well as the party wanting to restore
the New Deal Coalition. I'm not going to elaborate
on the parallels with the GOP right now as that is
REALLY trampling what's left of BoP...

Liking a man in uniform who happens to be a
dead president won't stop someone from getting
the Republican nomination for the Presidency ;
admitting to liking a living man in uniform
(in the way you're talking about) would stop any
male candidate from getting the Republican
nomination for President or VP (and for that
matter the Dem nomination for POTUS or
VP as well). It certainly would be a barrier to
remaining a high office holder in the GOP.

Lewis Gould, in his book "Grand Old Party",
stated that TR's domestic policy makes the
current GOP somewhat uncomfortable with
him as an icon, mainly because of the party's
Southernization, and the changed regional
demographics of the party has even caused
some anxiety about Lincoln. There certainly
are Republican office holders who invoke
Teddy, and McCain made no secret of
Lincoln and TR being his heroes, but with
the decline of the northeastern moderates
TR's usually only invoked when it comes to
foreign policy (a perception based more on
image than substance, as for all of TR's
hawkish rhetoric, he didn't start any new
wars and was quite the peacemaker in
office.)

I don't see why LBJ would object to the aims of
Iran-Contra - after all, his administration did many
of the same things. And not just in Southeast
Asia either. The Dominican Republic is the most
obvious Latin American example. Goals are
one thing, execution of strategy to reach those
goals is another.

Carter rebounded through charity work, trodding the same
path Herbert Hoover took to rehabilitate himself. I don't
see Johnson delving into charity work like Carter or
Hoover before him. If he did, it would probably involve
helping children in impoverished communities in Texas,
whether it be in poor rural areas or urban slums. It would
coincide in his interests in education, involving minorities
in politics, his home state, and the whole Great Society
type of idealism that balanced the "ruthless, corrupt bastard
you don't want to mess with" side of his personality. I
don't see him getting involved with international efforts
a la Carter (or Hoover's charity work on behalf of
displaced persons and refugees during and after
WW2). That's really not Lyndon.

Depends how candid he is.

Best,
Stan B.

On Jul 2, 5:45 pm, Stan Boleslawski <boleslaw...@forpresident.com>
wrote:

The NYA was Austin based; Johnson was born in the 10th district,
however, in Blanco County and the Edwards Plateau in Johnson City.
When he ran, he hadn't been back all that long, save to run the NYA.

Dunno.

Possibly. Not sure what those races are like in the 1930's. There' s
also the chance that like O'Daniel OTL, he can run for governor out of
the blue, more or less, when the vacancy occurs in 1941 as O'Daniel
still wins the Presidency

Yup. This should be fun.

But it will be a very different LBJ with a very different wartime
experience who becomes Senator, Majority Leader, and VP if he enters
as an enlisted man, not a Congressman on leave.

Except, not made of evil.

It should make some of the post-Vietnam antics about, for example,
Kitty Dukakis, either somewhat less effective or somewhat oddedr.

I think he'd end up somewhere like where McNamara did, frankly. That
is in many ways a better fit than Nixon.

I feel like he'd get wheeled out at the 1992 Convention to celebrate
the New Democrats of the New South, and so on.

Her bio is....special.

Agreed; bu I'd assume a living LBJ would have power pried from his
cold, dead hands. Or he'd come back from the dead. Either way.

Anne Richards runs in the 2000 Democratic Primary....

1) Special case 2) Better president that Reagan.

I'd also point out that FDR worship has gone through a few cycles, and
even so, the broad-spec policy stuff is common practice in the G-8;
further, there's a difference between the Democratic faith in FDR and
the Reagan fantasies, such that the GOP believes that Reagan only cut
taxes, as well as using Reagan's foreign policy choices as somehow
axiomatic--such as Wolfowitz involving Reagan on Marcos v. Bush on
Chicken Kiev. perhaps we're far enough away from FDR that it's not as
bad, and maybe the reagan stuff will diminish with time, but it's also
got it's own weird engine driving it now.

Agreed, to a point. There was also the post-1968 chase to restore the
New Deal Coalition, rather than tolerating realignment.

Hey, I'm OK if Crist likes a man in uniform. I just want him to admit
it.

Yeah, it's a special place.

Agreed. I feel like Johnson would shiv with aplomb, though.

I think so, yeah. Then again, I feel as if he as better odds than
Nixon of staging a comeback qua reputation; even Carter was able to
rebound.

Though Lyndon's ATL memoirs may hurt rather than help, eventually.

Best

L

On Jul 2, 12:00 pm, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

True. According to Wiki, LBJ was a high school teacher
in Houston prior to joining Kleberg's Congressional
staff in 1931. The Wiki article is unclear over whether he
lived in Austin prior to running for the 10th District
representing Austin (unless he was Austin-based when
running the Texas National Youth Administration).
What opportunities would Houston have provided
for him, if any?

What statewide office? LBJ dropped out of law
school so AG's out. Lieutenant Governor in
Texas is a more powerful position than in most
states, so that would be out for a novice. Maybe
Agriculture or State?

'48's too early for the GOP to gain any more than the
token presence they held in OTL Texas then ; while
very few Texans had been alive during the ACW and
only the elderly had been born during Reconstruction,
the associations were still there. Not to mention that
Coke Stevenson in TTL may not switch parties and
build up the GOP in Texas.

Very true.

So the obvious parallel is Nixon, not surprisingly.

I could picture Clinton consulting a living (and most
likely very sickly) LBJ during the Balkan Wars, to try
to learn from his mistakes. That is, if even the aged
LBJ would admit making mistakes.

LOL.

Major knock ons there.

Forgetting about FDR?

JFK being the

The party's cult around FDR and the New Deal was
based on substance, and continued to exert a hold
on the party into the mid '80s. Mondale's campaign
in '84 essentially was based on a return to the New
Deal, as if Reagan was just a mere aberration, and
the early '80s recession convinced the party that if
it only returned to the principles of Roosevelt it would
win back power. Obviously no one predicted the
economic recovery in 1984.

(There are parallels with current and future
politics here, with the parties switched, but I
do not care to discuss them.)

If anything, the GOP seems to be more willing to
overlook its past presidents as icons, other than
Lincoln ; the modern GOP seems to be rather
uncomfortable with Teddy Roosevelt as an
iconic figure, and Ike is rarely mentioned as a hero
by current Republicans. Obviously McCain is an
exception when it comes to TR, and he did
cite Ike in one of his 2008 campaign speeches
(the first time in my memory that a GOP
presidential nominee referenced Ike in a speech.)
ISTR reading about Charlie Crist mentioning
Eisenhower as a hero*, but it's surprising how
rare his name comes up in the party nowadays.
From observing Republican discourse, it seems
like the party would like to forget every one of its
icons post-Lincoln and pre-Reagan, other than
Karl Rove and co. trying to make McKinley into
the icon he was not.

He'd at least have some private things to say
about Iran-Contra - probably not critical
towards its aims in Central America but
critical as to how it was carried out. I don't
know if he'd go public, but he'd still know
enough to take some people down if he
chose to talk. Unless Reagan appoints him
to head the investigative commission that
John Tower headed in OTL - if so, it wouldn't
be the first time that LBJ was involved with an
investigative report that would be widely
questioned by many. ):

Yes, he'd still stay involved in Texas politics - I don't think
he'd be welcome in the national party unless he does
experience rehabilitation under Clinton.

Best,
Stan B.

*No BoP violation intended, as I don't live in FL and thus
could not have voted in any election Crist ran in or is
running in next year. I don't mean for this post to be a
discussion of Crist, his policies, or his personal life.

On Jul 2, 11:57 am, Stan Boleslawski <boleslaw...@forpresident.com>
wrote:

He'd have to beat the Austin machine, which had the back of Tom
Miller, who was Mayor from 1933-1949, and 1955-1961. He would, in
fact, be rated as a carpet bagger in that case.

He could try statewide office as a means to grab a congressional seat.
My impression is that that was the way to get a Congressional Seat.

Agreed. But the question is, if his path is paved by service in WWII,
and then he defeats O'Daniel in 1948 as per OTL, how different is he
going to be? How much does that hurt OTL's Democratic Party, but help
the Rayburn-Roosevelt alliance. That sort of thing.

I'd eliding the non-trivial chance that a non-congressman LBJ would
die during WWII.

I'd be surprised; all his male relations on his father's side died
before 70 or so, but let's run with this.

Probably, at least for a while. He's not going to be on good terms
with the party, I'd think, until 1992. I think it'd be easy for
Clinton to revitalize LBJ's reputation during the 1990's.

Yup.

Doris Kearns Goodwin moves to Austin, is permanently encamped at LBJ's
feet/bedside?

More broadly speaking, I suspect he'll go into relative exile for the
first decade or so, just ranching in Texas, writing his memoirs
(which, ATL, will compete with Caro; that work should be substantially
distorted by his survival). Perhaps a surviving LBJ helps Anne
Richards win in 1994....

The Democrats, however, have never been as attached to projects of
monumentalism and hagiography as the modern-day GOP is; JFK being the
singular case, but that tends to conflate the worship of style, rather
than substance, and is more mired in the narrative arc of the 1960's
than JFK's actual presidency.

Johnson, even with Vietnam, would have a rather interesting arc in
post-presidential life, given that his policies, rather than his
style, might revive and endure. I doubt he could blunt the rise of
Reagan and so on, but LBJ around for Watergate and Iran-Contra would
be...special.

I'd also assume that he's just never going to give up his meddling
ways. He'll retain power in Texas, and probably expand after a while.

Best

L

On Jul 2, 6:52 am, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

I know next to nothing about Texan municipal politics in that
era (other than Maverick being mayor of San Antonio after
losing his Congressional seat). I presume LBJ would be able
to win an election for Mayor of Austin - would that be enough
to give him a springboard to the US Senate without a seat in
the House beforehand?

And I agree that LBJ is eventually going to rise to the
top in politics by hook or by crook. He was too driven
not to.

ObWI: LBJ lives as long as Reagan, which would mean
he'd die in 2001 - effects? Does a living LBJ remain the
Dem president that the Dems would like to forget about
like the dead LBJ in OTL? Or is his reputation rehabilitated?
What is a longer Johnson post-presidency like?

Best,
Stan B.

Yeah, but it's not as if Johnson can really run against him. I suppose
he could run for, dunno, Mayor of Austin or something and then grab a
Congressional seat.

Best

L

Not sure who was the next to die or quit, but the next to be defeated was
Maury Maverick in the 1938 primary...

On Jun 30, 11:32 pm, Luke Schleusener <luke.schleuse...@gmail.com>
wrote:

Partially. LBJ had built up all his friends in Kleberg's district, and
never expected to run in Buchanan's. He had to create networks
from scratch. According to Robert Caro, Texas in the 1930s
tended to re-elect Representatives until they died or quit,
so LBJ was just waiting for an opening. (Who was the next
Texas Rep to die or quit after Buchanan? I don't know.)

Is it possible that the Browns wind up in debt, or even busted?

There's already the Tennessee Valley Authority; in theory
it could expand to any other rural area. IIRC, the reason
it didn't come to West Texas before LBJ is that the
region just didn't have a Congressman who both cared
and had the lobbying skills. In theory, there will eventually
be a bright Texan rep who sees the pork and dollar signs,
but it might be a while. Again according to Caro,
the utility companies were unsure they could make
a profit on it even with the government paying for
the start-up. So that bright Texan rep needs to be
not just willing, but actively trying to get it.

I really need to study this more, since it's probably the biggest
difference.

I don't think it was common to run for Senate
straight from an appointed position, especially
because the Senate in Texas was considered
the best position possible. Much better
than being a governor, who had term limits and
a lot of limits on his power. And LBJ was
awfully young in his OTL 1941 Senate run --
without the Congressional position, he
probably can't run.

So he's probably still scheming for the
House. In OTL he became sick of
the House very quickly, but I don't
know if he always saw it as a
mere stepping-stone, or if he
only felt that way after being there.

On February 22, 1937, Congressman James P. Buchanan, chairman of the
House Appropriations Committee, suffered a fatal heart attack.

That triggered a special election which brought then Texas National
Youth Administrator Lyndon B. Johnson onto the national stage and
began his long climb to power. His network of White Stars and friends
from his time as Congressman Kleberg's Secretary formed the building
blocks for his run at Senate and so on.

Let's notch that heart attack down just so; it's not fatal, and
Buchanan will eventually die (he was born in 1867); say, in 1941, also
of a heart attack. In the mean time, life without Lyndon has
progressed in somewhat strange directions:

--Brown and Root, Inc, without the love of Lyndon, may not be able to
build OTL's Buchanan Dam, and get on their way to becoming KBR,
corporate behemoth and war-time profiteers par excellence. The Dam,
and its thorny legal grounds will likely survive, but not the
expansion that was arranged through the relationship between Lyndon
and Alice Glass, whose husband owned the /Austin American Statesman/
among others.

--Buchanan Dam, and other projects, led to a surge in rural
electrification in Texas' Edwards Plateau. None of that happens here,
and the rural electrification part of the New Deal is somewhat
different.

--The Corpus Christi Naval Station isn't built; without Lyndon, B&R
doesn't get a bite at this big contract due to shenanigans revolving
around the Garner-FDR fight in a would-be Texas primary.

--The "compromise" between pro-Garner and pro-FDR forces at the end of
the abortive primaries will have a different post-script. Lyndon won't
play spy for the White House, and at the end of the mess, he won't put
Sam Rayburn between a rock and a hard place, stripping him of much of
his support from the Administration.

More broadly, I'd assume that the FDR-Garner fight goes much the same
way, but that Rayburn, made Speaker, is much closer to the President
through the end of his time in office, having become Speaker. That
could lead interesting places.

Lyndon, not elected to national office, is going struggle to get FDR's
ear or the nation's attention. I doubt he'd stay on as NYA Director
through 1941, and so may move on to being something else, but without
his Congressional Campaign to raise his profile, that'll be more
difficult than OTL. I don't doubt that he'd run if Buchanan dies in
1941, but, should he win, he'd likely resign; alternatively, he could
try to win that Senate seat.

Thoughts?

Best

L